Amcor's (ASX:AMC) financial leverage and free cash flow generation will be the main watch points in its fiscal year 2026 results, which remain critical to share price performance, according to Jarden in a Wednesday note.

Amcor has fiscal year 2026 core earnings per share guidance of $3.98 to $4.03, with market expectations sitting at the low end of guidance.

Overall, industry volume trends have been robust, but variability in the performance and outlook amongst key customers in the consumer packaging goods (CPG) space is notable. Despite signs of improving CPG customer volumes, the flexibles segment volume performance in the fiscal third quarter was still down 1.5%.

The operating profitability in the segment to date has been aided by productivity and synergies realisation. Whilst expected to remain supportive over the near-term, it will at some point need to transition to volume-led growth.

The investment firm retained its overweight rating and cut the price target to AU$75.70 per share from AU$75.90 per share.