The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1142 ET - Qatar's non-energy private sector remained on a recovery path in July as the pace of deterioration eased to its slowest in five months, says Trevor Balchin, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. The Qatar Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 48.5 in July from 47.6 in June, a five-month high, as new-order declines moderated and employment growth accelerated, S&P says. Balchin says a much slower fall in new business and faster job creation drove the improvement, while only a modest decline in output partially offset those gains. He says firms continued building inventories ahead of expected growth and restarted projects, although input-cost inflation accelerated for a record seventh straight month and output prices rose at their fastest pace since December 2022. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1128 ET - Gold prices jump 4% on a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields, while traders closely watch developments in the Middle East and U.S. data for cues on the monetary policy outlook. In midmorning U.S. trading, New York gold futures are up 4% to $4,315.90 a troy ounce, while the U.S. dollar index is down 0.1% to 99.17, making dollar-priced bullion more affordable for overseas buyers. Renewed diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war have pushed Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, below $80 a barrel, easing fears over energy-driven inflation and interest-rate increases. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in a nearly 57% chance of a September hike. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1120 ET - Former Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair Janet Yellen says on CNBC that she "is surprised in many ways that the oil shock and the war in Middle East hasn't had more of an effect than it has," on the economy. Yellen says she was quite concerned about the labor market about six months to a year ago, but that it seems to be "functioning well, [and] it doesn't look to me like its so hot that it's a source of inflationary pressure." She says the main problem we face from a macro standpoint is "inflation that's too high and has been too high for a long time and how to bring that down without doing damage to the economy." (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)

1039 ET - U.K. retailer Next has shown resilience despite the challenges from the Middle East conflict, says credit research firm CreditSights, who assigns the company's bonds a 'market perform' recommendation. "We see Next as being well-placed within the BBB ratings band versus comparables," CreditSights' Mariya Nurgaziyeva says in a note. The U.S.-Iran conflict did not prevent the retailer from beating expectations and upgrading its full-year guidance, Nurgaziyeva says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1031 ET - Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan is sticking with his research team's call that the Fed will raise rates three times in September, October and December. "They really are saying that the labor market is in very good condition and so you have to work on the inflation side and make sure that it keeps going down," he says on CNBC. He adds that, right now, Bank of America's forecast for three rate rises should get the Fed in a place where FOMC members feel inflation is tamed. Moynihan also says he's seeing more convergence in the spending patterns of higher and lower income customers. "That's very good," he says. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)

1011 ET - Bitcoin has been rangebound in recent weeks, which has been an opportunity for big buyers -- otherwise known as "whales." These whales are seen as accumulating bitcoin at these price levels, says analysts with CryptoQuant in a note. "Bitcoin whale holdings (excluding exchanges and mining pools) have risen through 2026 to roughly 3.06M BTC, with whales adding aggressively as price dipped below $60K in June," says the firm. CoinMarketCap reports that the Crypto Fear and Greed index remains below the threshold between "fear" and "neutral", at a score of 38 out of 100. Bitcoin is down 0.5% to $64,012. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1009 ET - The dollar's potential to weaken is limited even if Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is worse than expected, TD Securities strategists say in a note. "Our base case is for the DXY dollar index to still stay above its 200-day simple moving average on the 99-handle under this scenario." The dollar has fallen significantly in recent days and investors are unlikely to accumulate bets against the currency until U.S. inflation data start to soften, they say. In the case of a better-than-expected report, the dollar has more room to consolidate higher as a solid jobs report could increase expectations for U.S. interest-rate rises, they say. The DXY falls 0.1% 99.757. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0929 ET - Stablecoins have seen significant growth in the past few years but their long-term prospects remain uncertain, ING's Marine Leleux says in a note. Stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency pegged to another asset, reached nearly $300 billion in market capitalization at the end of 2025 but future growth depends on whether they can expand into the broader payment world, she says. "Part of the path to becoming a broadly-adopted instrument depends on the presence of a regulatory framework and interoperability with existing payment systems." However, political approaches to stablecoins varies across the globe with notable differences between the U.S. and Europe, she says. That means stablecoins could evolve as primarily domestic or regional instruments, potentially constraining growth, she says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0927 ET - The yield curve is a simple market indicator for central banks' credibility when they are facing mounting inflation risk, MFS Investment Management's Benoit Anne says in a note. "When the curve flattens in the context of rising inflation risks, typically this would be associated with a credible inflation-fighting central bank," the head of market insights says. The yield curve flattens when market participants anticipate short-term rates will rise and believe that inflation will be kept under control, implying that long-dated yields won't rise as much, he says. The curve tends to steepen, however, when the central bank is perceived to be less credible at fighting inflation, causing long-dated yields to rise more. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0922 ET - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says on CNBC that strong corporate earnings, the consumer and the labor market all serve as evidence that policy may not be truly restrictive enough to bring inflation down to target. Kashkari was one of the three dissenters at last week's Fed meeting advocating for a quarter-point rate hike, and he is a voting member this year on the FOMC. When discussing the frequency of the Fed's annual meetings, he says he is open-minded, noting that the FOMC always has the ability to call emergency meetings. "I don't have a strong view," he says. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0904 ET - Sterling could come under pressure as the summer draws to a close, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. Markets could price out interest-rate rises for the Bank of England and grow nervous ahead of the autumn budget under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, she says. "While the budget threatens to cast a shadow over the pound post summer, it remains RaboResearch's view that the market has overestimated the risk of BOE rate hikes." The market has reduced expectations for a rate rise by year-end following a recent pullback in oil prices but this is still too aggressive, she says. The euro trades flat at 0.8571 pounds and Rabobank favors buying it on any falls to 0.8550. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0853 ET - Treasury yields are mixed as oil prices edge up. Mideast mediators are working on a temporary fix for the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. indicating a deal might be near. ADP says private employers added 44,000 jobs in July versus the WSJ consensus of 75,000. The report comes ahead of Friday's July jobs numbers from the U.S. Labor Department. Economists polled by WSJ expect payrolls of 83,000. Neel Kashkari, president and CEO of the Minneapolis Fed, says on CNBC that "now is the time to start slowly moving" rates up. Kashkari dissented against the FOMC's decision last week to leave rates unchanged, saying he preferred to raise the target rate for fed funds by 0.25 percentage point. The 10-year yield is at 4.62%, down from 4.63% Tuesday. The two-year is 4.21%, up from 4.19%.