0122 GMT - Vault Minerals shareholders are facing a capital-expenditure shock while they await the closure of a planned takeover by Genesis Minerals, says Jarden. Vault's estimated FY 2027 capex of 339 million Australian dollars is up 19% on year and 42% higher than consensus, it says. Jarden keeps a neutral rating and A$5.20 target on Vault, reflecting "the proposed transaction premium and our expectation that VAU's share price will be heavily influenced by GMD's share price." Still, cost escalation is a key downside risk, as is the possibility that the deal with Genesis is terminated for unexpected reasons, Jarden says. "A superior competing offer for VAU represents the key upside risk, however, we consider this to be an extremely low probability." Shares in Vault are up 2.9% at A$5.06.