Consumer Debt Eased in Second Quarter

Dow Jones
08/11

U.S. household debt declined slightly in the second quarter and the number of Americans with overdue bills held steady, signs that overall consumer health isn't markedly weakening.

Total household debt decreased by $13 billion, a 0.1% drop, to $18.8 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday.

Much of that decline was driven by less mortgage debt and a dip in student loan debt. Balances on mortgages declined by $74 billion and totaled $13.1 trillion at the end of June, the New York Fed reported.

Researchers, however, noted the decline in mortgage debt was related to a shift in mortgage servicing this quarter, which resulted in some mortgage accounts temporarily not appearing in the New York Fed's data. These accounts are expected to return next quarter, so lower mortgage debt probably won't be a longer-term trend. Without the disruptions, the growth in mortgage debt probably would have been flat.

Home equity lines of credit (Heloc) balances, however, rose by $13 billion to a total of $459 billion. That's $142 billion above the low point reached in 2022's first quarter.

Student loan balances decreased by $7 billion and stood at $1.65 trillion at the end of June.

Credit card balances rose again last quarter by $21 billion and total debt in this category now stands at $1.26 trillion. Auto loan balances increased by $28 billion to a total aggregate level of $1.71 trillion.

The number of households with bills in some state of past due edged down as well, with the rate of accounts entering delinquent status remaining fairly steady. In fact, pace of new delinquencies have remained relatively stable for almost two years.

About 4.7% of aggregate outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, a touch lower than the 4.8% rate logged in the first quarter.

Transition into early delinquency rose slightly for auto loans and mortgages, but was largely steady for credit cards and other types of debt.

"Delinquency rates across most products have held steady over the past two years" Joelle Scally, economic policy advisor at the New York Fed, said in a statement. "Still, new delinquencies for auto loans and credit cards remain at elevated levels, a trend we'll continue to monitor."

The share of accounts moving into serious delinquency status, with bills at least 90 days overdue, edged down to 2.57%. That's a bit better than the 2.91% rate a year ago and relatively unchanged from the first quarter.

Researchers with the New York Fed found that aggregate delinquency rate remains elevated because older debts that lenders have charged-off their books -- typically 120 to 180 days after balances are overdue -- are still being actively reported to credit bureaus for longer than they used to.

Only about 40% of borrowers' charged-off debts were still being reported a year out from 2004 to 2012, researchers noted. But by 2024, this figure had doubled to 80%.

Essentially, aggregate delinquency rates are a lagging indicator and reflects past charge-off debts that are sticking around on credit reports for longer than they used to. Instead, the measure of the number of consumers who are becoming newly delinquent in the current quarter is a more current measure of how the consumer is doing.

That points to a more benign state of consumer health than the aggregate numbers alone would suggest. In fact, researches noted that the pace of delinquencies is elevated -- but has been largely stable since 2024.

 

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