Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
08/11

The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1012 ET - Newmont is getting a sweet bargain for its piece of Nevada, according to TD Cowen's Steven Green in a note. The analyst says the $1.95 billion payout to Barrick is "well below" his $6.6 billion implied valuation for Newmont's 38.5% share of Fourmile, handing Newmont a "very attractive price" and an estimated $4.7 billion value uptick. Barrick also wins, Green notes, by bringing Fourmile into NGM early which should eliminate the need for a costly bankable feasibility study, leverage existing local infrastructure and could possibly save the JV in excess of $1B. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0817 ET - Barrick's settlement with Newmont may be a potential drawback for Barrick shareholders, according to Citi analyst Alexander Hacking in a report. The $1.95 billion deal resolves the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture disputes between the two miners, and clears the path for Barrick's North American IPO of its gold assets, Hacking says. However, the payment to fold in Fourmile "may be below what some investors were expecting," he says. "Investor consensus seemed to be that Fourmile was a $10-20bn asset and thus a vend in payment from NEM for their 38.5% could be in the $4-8bn range," according to Hacking.(adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0614 ET - Palm oil rose during the Asian trading session. Sentiment was likely supported by strength in overnight rival oil prices, amid concerns over Iran rejecting talks with the U.S., making a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz elusive, Kenanga Futures writes. There is also improving demand prospects from India ahead of the festive season, it adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery rose 47 ringgit to 4,724 ringgit a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0601 ET - European chemical companies remain wary on volumes as the geopolitical environment remains uncertain, Bank of America analysts say in a research note. The sector saw upgrades across European chemicals like Evonik, BASF and Syensqo, with most results ahead of consensus estimates, the analysts say. The results were supported by strong pricing pressure driven by higher commodity prices from the Middle East conflict, they add. Higher prices also meant some level of pre-buying in the quarter, while improved earnings didn't translate to stronger free cash flow, given the negative working capital impact from higher raw material prices, the analysts say. Evonik and BASF shares trade 0.8% and 0.5% lower, respectively, while Syensqo trades broadly flat. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)

0418 ET - Evonik is having a good year, which may give way to a more difficult 2027, Berenberg analyst Sebastian Bray says in a research note. Investors of the German chemicals company are starting to ask what is next after the 2026 peak. "The answer may be: more methionine capacity, a reversion in polyamide spreads and another round of cost savings as the company adapts to intense competition and slow demand growth," Bray says. The best-case scenario, as for most European diversified chemicals companies, is that a resolution to the Strait of Hormuz conflict will eventually be followed by a Russia-Ukraine settlement, Bray adds. Shares trade 0.2% lower at 17.97 euros. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)

0358 ET - BASF's share price will likely remain volatile in the short term, but the market is missing longer-term potential for value creation, Bernstein analysts James Hooper and Sebastien Afoy say in a research note. At its integrated Verbund production sites, volumes are expected to grow and cost savings will more than offset negative but improving pricing, the analysts say. The German conglomerate should also see a catalyst for value creation from the IPO of its agricultural solutions business, the analysts say. "If one believes either of these two tenets, then BASF appears undervalued, and we believe the stock currently prices in no growth," they add. Shares trade 0.5% lower at 51.26 euros. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)

2243 ET - Hillgrove Resources' new copper-hedging program is modest and adds a good level of support in case prices soften, according to analysts at MA Moelis Australia. They say it makes sense for Hillgrove to ensure a minimum price for some of its production. The volumes--Hillgrove hedged 3,600 metric tons over the 12 months--seem appropriate, they add. "While recent times have seen the market grow cautious of hedging in general, it is still incumbent upon companies to ensure appropriate risk mitigation," the analysts say. MA has a buy rating and a 9.5 Australian cents a share target on Hillgrove. The stock is down 0.8% at 6.35 Australian cents. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2243 ET - Palm oil rises in Asian trading, driven by biodiesel demand and weather concerns that could weigh on output, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Technical analysis suggests crude palm oil futures' broader uptrend should remain intact although near-term consolidation may persist, it adds. AmInvestment Bank expects palm oil prices to face resistance at 4,700 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,650 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery is higher by 14 ringgit at 4,691 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2122 ET - Press Metal Aluminium's 2Q core earnings could be a record high, driven by stronger average LME aluminum prices, Hong Leong IB analyst Brian Chin says in a note. He tips 2Q core earnings around 750 million to 800 million ringgit, 24%-32% higher sequentially and 47%-56% higher on year. Aluminum prices are expected to remain supported by a supply deficit in 2026, while still subdued alumina prices should continue to support smelting margins, he reckons. However, prices could moderate as new capacity comes online in 2027, with a potential market surplus and a hawkish Fed posing risks, he adds. Hong Leong cuts Press Metal's target price to 8.34 ringgit from 8.77 ringgit, while maintaining a hold rating on the stock. Shares are 0.6% higher at 7.98 ringgit.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2033 ET - Gold holds steady in the Asian session. The U.S.'s July payrolls report encouraged investors to price in a softer labor-market path, weighing on the dollar while supporting precious metals, says Sucden Financial in a note. Gold's earlier rally towards $4,355 a troy ounce and its remaining above the previous $4,300 zone suggest buyers remain comfortable adding exposure to the metal, says Sucden. Still, the rebound in the U.S. 10-year bond yield toward 4.7% means that the market could be more vulnerable to profit-taking if rates continue to retrace higher, it adds. Spot gold is flat at $4,339.60 an ounce.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)

1844 ET - Gold remains one of the standout markets, says Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. Technically, the picture remains constructive. A bull steepening in the Treasury curve, together with consolidation in real yields, continues to provide an increasingly supportive macro backdrop, he says. Gold has broken decisively above the consolidation range established in early August, with strong range expansion validating the breakout, he adds. Friday's powerful rally towards US$4,400 per troy ounce has reinforced the bullish trend, says Weston. Wednesday's U.S. CPI release remains a key market catalyst, followed by Thursday's PPI report.

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