Strategist Scott Rubner says falling volatility will give big funds a reason to buy more
Several groups of investors are getting behind this market, says Scott Redner of Citadel Securities.
The stock market has been slowly regrouping after a rout in July, an effort that hasn't been completely smooth, as it's been a slightly bumpy August.
Last week, Citadel Securities, one of the world's biggest market makers, told clients that a technical reset in U.S. stocks was officially over, clearing the way for a push higher.
In our call of the day, Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity-derivatives strategy, returns with an update on how market flows are picking up and pushing in a positive direction, thanks to several influential groups of buyers.
Zeroing in on one of those drivers in particular, Rubner had this to say: "The leverage reset has largely run its course, creating room for systematic strategies to add exposure as volatility falls."
Systematic strategies, employed by big hedge funds and some institutional managers, use sophisticated algorithms and data inputs to make investing decisions. The Cboe Volatility Index VIX, known as the stock-market fear index, has stuck to around 15 since climbing above 20 in late July.
Rubner noted leveraged exchange-traded-fund assets tumbled more than $60 billion from a June peak to $154 billion.
"If volatility continues to fall and trends rebuild, systematic strategies can begin adding exposure again. The next meaningful mechanical flow may be re-leveraging rather than deleveraging," said Rubner.
The retail crowd is also back, he said, after selling at the end of June - though still wary and paying for protection. Added to that is "relentless" demand by the passive ETF crowd, while companies have authorized more than $1 trillion in share buybacks in a window that is about to open.
Strong earnings have played a big role in pushing investors back into the market, he said. "The macro debate remains complicated, but the message from corporate America is much simpler: Earnings are better than expected, and by a wide margin," said Rubner.
What matters is that many of those different buying flows are now "reinforcing one another," which could work out well for August, Rubner said. September, though, "may be a different conversation," as seasonality gets harder, and position crowding becomes a possibility. He added that "if August turns into a chase, some of today's buying capacity will have already been deployed."
The social-media reaction to Citadel Securities was a wary one.
Note that Rubner's latest talk of a market charging higher has been met with raised eyebrows on X. Some hinted that his firm may be hyping the market for a reason, after last month scooping up most of Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness in a fire sale that has reportedly already paid off.
The markets
U.S. stock futures (ES00) (YM00) (NQ00) are firming up after as-expected inflation data, with tech stocks set to take the lead. Crude oil (CL.1) (BRN00) is higher, and gold (GC00) is set for its fourth-straight winning session.
Key asset performance Last 5d 1m YTD 1y S&P 500 7728.2 -0.11% 2.45% 12.89% 19.90% Nasdaq Composite 26,445.45 -0.52% 1.30% 13.78% 21.97% 10-year Treasury 4.672 5.50 11.70 50.00 42.70 Gold 4473.3 3.84% 9.99% 3.26% 31.30% Oil 82.65 10.08% 3.00% 43.96% 31.73% Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points
The buzz
Consumer prices rose 0.1% in July as expected. Follow our Live coverage here.
CoreWeave's stock (CRWV) is up about 16% after better-than-expected results showed strong demand for the AI infrastructure provider's wares.
Super Micro Computer shares $(SMCI)$ are up 7% after the server maker's revenue forecast exceeded forecasts.
Lumentum $(LITE)$ reported forecast-beating results, and shares of the optics and laser maker are higher.
Cisco $(CSCO)$ reports quarterly results after the close.
Italy's $4.7 billion cheese economy is feeling the climate-change heat.
The chart
Are energy stocks about to have a - another, that is - moment? BTIG's chief market technician, Jonathan Krinsky, who provides this chart, thinks so. Getting bullish on energy stocks after a rally is "always risky" given that it's headline-driven "and thus vulnerable to a shakeout at any point," he said. There is no denying, however, that the energy sector has been regrouping and forming a technical base largely over the last four months, he said. "Any further strength here and you would have to concede a new leg higher for the space."
Top tickers
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Ticker symbol Security name NVDA Nvidia SPCX SpaceX TSLA Tesla MU Micron SMCI Super Micro Computer CRWV CoreWeave TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing AMZN Amazon PLTR Palantir AAPL Apple
French soccer star joins pickup match in Manhattan.
-Barbara Kollmeyer