Review & Preview: Headline Fatigue

Dow Jones
08/15

Zen. The S&P 500 pulled back a touch from its record high today, but the index still wrapped a third-straight week of gains.

The market benchmark dipped 0.2 %, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 108 points, or 0.2%.

Stocks barely reacted to an unexpected drop in retail sales, though a shift to June from July for online retail promotions like Amazon Prime Day may have played a part.

Brent crude oil futures ticked 1.7% higher as the U.S. and Iran showed no signs of coming together to make a deal. Still, the market barely took notice.

"My sense is that investors are experiencing headline fatigue at this point," writes Mizuho's Daniel O'Regan. "Similar to how the Russia-Ukraine war gradually became background noise for markets, the tape is no longer swinging 1-3% on every Iran-related headline. That's probably a healthy sign."

The stock market was fairly sleepy all week, and investors expect that to continue based on the CBOE Volatile Index, or VIX. That benchmark fell to 14.25, its lowest levels since December. The VIX is viewed as a fear gauge for the stock market because it measures implied volatility in the S&P 500 for the month ahead.

The average reading for the VIX going back to 1990 is 19.45, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It's been below 15 for only about 32% of the total trading days in that span.

In other words: The stock market is about as zen as it gets.

Watch our TV show on Fox Business Saturday and Sunday at 10:30 a.m. ET. This week, Northern Trust's Michael Hunstad on how an AI productivity boom will lift earnings. Plus, what Wall Street's loudest bulls and bears are saying and why the marshmallow sneaker may be on the way out.

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The Hot Stock: Copart +7.6% The Biggest Loser: Broadcom -5.9%

Best Sector: Energy +1.4% Worst Sector: Health Care -0.6%

This Weekend's Magazine

The Calendar

The market's calm could continue next week, as there won't be any tier-one economic data releases. The Census Bureau will report residential construction data on Tuesday, and on Wednesday the Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes from its meeting in late July. S&P Global will release its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes on Friday.

Twelve S&P 500 companies will report quarterly results next week, with retailers taking center stage. Home Depot will announce earnings on Tuesday, followed by Lowe's, Target, and TJX Cos. on Wednesday. Walmart will report on Thursday.

-- Dan Lam

What We're Reading Today

   -- Is the K-Shaped Economy a Thing Anymore? 
 
   -- Sit-Down Restaurant Stocks Are Beating Fast Casual in Reversal From Covid 
      Era 
 
   -- Goldman Sachs Bets $2.25B on 'Boomer Candy' ETFs. Are They a Buy? 
 
   -- Bill Ackman Moves Stocks. These 5 Prove It. 
 
   -- And this week's cover story: Vanguard Conquered the ETF World. Where It's 
      Aiming Next. 

Join Barron's Live at noon ET on Monday. Associate Editor Reshma Kapadia speaks with Savita Subramanian, Bank of America's head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy. They will take a look under the hood of the bull market in U.S. stocks and discuss what's ahead.

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