European Midday Briefing: Shares Rise, Oil Falls as Middle East Concerns Weigh

Dow Jones
08/13

MARKET WRAPS

Stocks:

European shares were mostly up Thursday as talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained stalled.

Oil prices fell as investors assessed a weaker demand outlook and continued to monitor developments in the Middle East.

"Going forward, progress on restoring Hormuz traffic remains the key catalyst for prices, while tight global balances should keep oil supported despite signs that higher prices are beginning to weigh on demand," MUFG said.

Meanwhile, the U.K. economy grew in line with expectations, expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter following 0.6% growth in the first quarter.

While the data make it harder to argue that the economy is too fragile for tighter monetary policy, this isn't guaranteed as the full impact of higher energy prices is still to come and the Bank of England is waiting for second-round inflation effects, eToro said.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures were up Thursday after Wednesday's inflation data caused markets to trim odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September.

Investors now await the upcoming PPI data for further clues on the rate outlook.

Forex:

The euro rose.

Sterling fell as concerns about the Middle East conflict overshadowed data showing the U.K. economy grew in line with expectations in the second quarter.

The dollar rose to a two-week high against a basket of currencies. The greenback briefly fell after data Wednesday showed U.S. inflation eased in line with expectations to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June.

Bonds:

Yields on eurozone government bonds edged higher as prospects of a U.S.-Iran peace deal faded, raising concerns about prolonged supply chain disruptions and inflation risk.

Treasury yields fell after Wednesday's U.S. inflation data showed prices eased in July, in line with forecasts, reducing the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates next month.

Energy:

In early European trading, Brent crude was down 1.5%, while WTI futures declined 1.6%.

The IEA estimates a deficit of 1.8 million barrels a day in the third quarter as higher fuel prices weigh on consumption, while OPEC also cut its demand-growth forecast.

Metals:

Gold prices eased in early European trading after rising in the previous session, as U.S. inflation data came in line with expectations, reinforcing bets that the Fed will keep rates on hold in September.

The precious metal was likely to continue serving as a potential hedge against currency weakness and the risks associated with persistently high government debt and fiscal deficits, said T. Rowe Price.

Iron ore

Iron ore prices were flat in early trade. End-user consumption is recovering from low levels, but weak steelmaker profitability is limiting the scope for a meaningful improvement in ore demand, Baocheng Futures said.

EMEA HEADLINES

Maersk Raises Guidance on Higher Earnings, Increased Visibility

Danish shipping group A.P. Moller-Maersk raised its full-year guidance on the back of higher earnings and improved visibility for the rest of the year despite the conflict in the Middle East.

Maersk said it now targets underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for the year of between $10.5 billion and $12.5 billion, ahead of its previous target range of $8 billion to $10 billion.

Adyen Shares Jump as Earnings Rise and Growth Accelerates

Shares in Adyen jumped after the Amsterdam-based payments provider posted a rise in first-half earnings.

In morning trade shares rose 9.3% to 995.2 euros but remain down nearly 28% over the year to date.

Antofagasta Posts Higher Earnings But Cuts Production Guidance After Heavy Rain in Chile

Antofagasta's first-half earnings jumped on higher prices, which helped offset a rise in operating costs, but the copper miner cut its full-year production outlook after severe weather in Chile temporarily closed a mine.

The Chilean copper miner said Thursday that its pretax profit rose 72% on the same period last year to $2 billion. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization climbed 27% to $2.84 billion while operating cash flow jumped by 53% to $2.77 billion.

Orsted Says All Projects on Schedule After Impairments Hit Profit

Orsted reported lower second-quarter profit, hit by write-downs, but said all projects are on schedule and within planned costs.

The Danish renewable-energy company said Thursday that quarterly net profit sank to 518 million Danish kroner ($79.9 million) from 3.10 billion kroner previously. Higher taxes and noncash impairment charges this year due to increases in long-dated U.S. interest rates, as well as last year's gains on asset sales, caused the drop.

GLOBAL NEWS

Tariff Refunds Are Here-and Turbocharging Earnings

Tariff refunds have begun rolling in to big U.S. companies-in some cases providing a solid boost to earnings.

Contrary to warnings that the refund process could prove slow and messy, many companies appear to have received the money with remarkable speed. So far, over 40 S&P 500 companies have reported some $9.6 billion in refunds in the past quarter or so, including at least $2.1 billion in cash already received.

U.K. Economy Continues Robust Performance in Second Quarter

The British economy continued its resilient start to the year in the second quarter, growing faster than the U.S. despite the jump in energy prices and heightened uncertainty provoked by the war in the Middle East.

Gross domestic product growth was 0.4% in the three months through June, the U.K.'s statistics agency said Thursday, matching a consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

Norway's Central Bank Holds But Keeps Door Open to Hike

Norway's central bank kept interest rates unchanged again as easing underlying inflation and continued uncertainty around the Middle East conflict supported waiting for more evidence before tightening policy further.

Norges Bank kept its key policy rate at 4.25% on Thursday, in line with economists' expectations in a Wall Street Journal poll.

Chip stocks are closing in on a bull market. Here's why some analysts are nervous.

Chip stocks are closing back in on a bull market, fueled by optimism around recent corporate earnings. But some analysts caution that the results don't necessarily warrant widespread enthusiasm.

It was a strong day for the semiconductor sector on Wednesday, with shares of Sandisk SNDK and Micron Technology MU gaining about 6% and 5%, respectively. SK Hynix SKHY, another major beneficiary of memory-chip demand, saw its American depositary receipts rise 9%.

Trump Says Hormuz Is Under U.S. Control. Few Ships Are Listening.

President Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. has total control of the Strait of Hormuz. The reality on the water tells a different story.

Ship-tracking data shows that just 14 vessels on Tuesday crossed a waterway that routinely handled more than 130 a day before the war. Eleven of those ships took the route administered by Iran. Traffic was slow throughout July, with an average of 26 crossings a day, and in June, with 33 a day, as renewed Iranian attacks on ships cut short a deal to open the strait.

Every Day in Cuba Presents a New Challenge for Its Impoverished Residents

From one end of their 800-mile-long, crocodile-shaped Caribbean island to the other, Cubans are suffering through hot, sleepless nights and trudging through exhaustion and hunger by day.

Never before has the Communist island been so cut off from the world, strangled by a U.S. fuel blockade, more American sanctions and a government unable to keep the lights on. Food, water, medicine and other basics are difficult to access. Mountains of uncollected trash fill the streets of the crumbling capital, Havana.

What We Learned Tracing North Korea's Hidden Workforce Inside American Companies

North Korea has built a secret workforce inside American companies. Using stolen identities, AI tools and U.S. accomplices, its operatives have cheated their way into remote jobs in an effort to earn money for Kim Jong Un's regime. The FBI says there are thousands of them applying for jobs across America.

The Wall Street Journal's documentary, "Infiltrated: North Korea's Secret U.S. Workforce," follows a single cell of these operatives. Drawn from a trove of leaked data-browser history, emails, calendars and screen recordings pulled from the team's own computers-our yearlong investigation offers a rare look at how North Korea's undercover workers get hired.

How Trump's Ruse to Evade an Iranian Threat Unfolded on the Tarmac in Turkey

WASHINGTON-As President Trump's motorcade rushed through Turkey's capital to the airport, his security team had an urgent decision to make.

U.S. and Israeli intelligence in July had uncovered a threat by Iranian proxies to launch a lightweight, shoulder-fired missile at Trump's plane as he departed Ankara, according to U.S. and Middle East officials. In a worst-case scenario, a militant would evade tight security at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit, stand about a half-mile away from the airport, and use a man-portable air-defense system, or Manpad, to strike the jet, said officials who have seen or been briefed on the intelligence.

Write to priscila.barrera@wsj.com

 

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