The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1541 ET - In today's WASDE report, the USDA says that it lowered its outlook for beef production in 2026 due to "a slower rate of steer and heifer slaughter through the end of the year." For pork the outlook is cut on a slower rate of slaughter and lighter-weight animals. The USDA made a note in today's report that its outlook for beef is assuming that the reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border to feeder cattle has occurred in the Douglas, Ariz. port, but not yet for other ports. "Subsequent forecasts will reflect officially announced changes in policy when they occur," the USDA says. Live cattle futures finished down 1.1% to $2.23875 a pound, while hogs settled up 0.3% to 83.55 cents a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1515 ET - U.S. natural gas futures rise ahead of weekly inventory data, supported by hotter weather forecasts for much of the next two weeks. "The warmer turn in the forecast has helped prices recover, but the upside remains measured because production continues to sit near record territory and leaves little room for demand to weaken," Gelber & Associates says in a note. The EIA is expected to report a 30 Bcf storage build for last week, according to a WSJ survey of analysts. That would trim the inventory surplus over the five-year average to 192 Bcf from 195 Bcf, while leaving stocks 31 Bcf below their year-earlier level. Nymex natural gas settles up 1.3% at $2.804/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1456 ET - Oil futures end little changed in cautious trading with the market still focused on the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. is in complete control of the strait, although few ships are moving through the waterway given the risk of Iranian attacks. "I think the U.S. has significantly underestimated Iran's resolve," says Aarathi Krishnan, chief executive of geopolitical risk firm Raksha Intelligence Futures. Even if a deal is struck to reopen the strait, it doesn't mean that everything returns to normal, as the war risk premium needs to return to manageable levels, she says. "For insurers to bring down premiums they don't wait for the deal to be announced, they look for patterns over two to three months. They observe it and then they bring down risk premiums, which then makes it affordable for ships to start moving again." WTI and Brent settle up 0.1% at $83.27 and $88.98 a barrel, respectively. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1445 ET - The USDA's weekly export sales report may show a big jump in U.S. soybean export sales. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal are forecasting exports for the week ended Aug. 6 to land anywhere from 700,000 metric tons to 2.6 million tons. If they hit the higher end of forecasts, then it'll be nearly 1 million more tons in soybean sales than reported last week. Sales to China are the main driver for the higher estimates, with flash sales being routinely announced in recent weeks. Corn and wheat sales are also forecast to have higher sales, analysts say. CBOT grain futures are higher following the WASDE report from earlier in the day, with corn up 4.5%, soybeans up 1.2%, and wheat up 3.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1442 ET - Front-month gold and silver futures settle higher after July's year-over-year CPI rise of 3.4% is seen as in-line. The softened inflation outlook gave precious metals support--making it four straight sessions that gold futures close higher, while silver is now up 8 out of the past 11 trading sessions, according to FactSet. Front month gold finishes up 0.6% to $4408.90 a troy ounce. Silver closes up 1.2% to $65.555 a troy ounce. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1347 ET - Treasury yields partially recover from morning declines triggered by lukewarm July inflation, while the dollar strengthens. A Treasury auction of 10-year notes shows signs of steady demand. Middle East tensions remain high, but oil prices ease amid an unexpected build in U.S. crude stockpiles. Annual July CPI inflation meets forecast at 3.4%, driving odds of a September Fed hike down to 38% from 48% yesterday, according to CME. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.1%, reversing its morning losses. The 10-year yield rises to 4.668% from an intraday low of 4.652%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1253 ET - August's WASDE report did not make any adjustment to soybean export sales forecasts, keeping them the same as July at 1.66 billion bushels. But the number may not be the complete picture. That's because while accounting for higher sales out of Argentina to offset lower sales by Ukraine, what it doesn't appear to account for are promises made by China to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year. "[These] are not fully accounted for in USDA's balance sheet yet," says Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. CBOT soybeans are up 0.7% after the WASDE's release, while corn rises 3% and wheat is up 3.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1240 ET - The USDA's surprise cut to U.S. corn yields--reducing the national average to 180.7 bushels an acre from 183 bpa in July--gave traders fuel to push corn prices higher. Analysts say that both the yield cut and a reduction to expected ending stocks for this year makes the report positive for corn price-wise. For soybeans and wheat, the price response was far quieter. "The corn report is supportive while everything else is relatively neutral on the surface," says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note following the WASDE's release. Corn futures jumped to up 3% on the day after the report's publication, but slowly tapered gains to 2.5%. Soybeans are up 0.4%, and wheat climbs 2.9%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1142 ET--U.S. commercial crude oil stocks rose by 17.4 million barrels last week, the EIA reports, against market expectations of a small decline. Imports rose by 1.1 million barrels a day and exports were down by 627,000 b/d. "Today's numbers are very noisy because of tankers unloading in the U.S., but they don't alter the challenging fundamental picture," David Russell of TradeStation says in a note. "Markets will likely look past this report and keep focusing on headlines out of the Middle East." WTI and Brent are virtually unchanged at $83.20 and $88.92 a barrel, respectively. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1139 ET - Trading earlier this summer that sent bitcoin below the $60k mark is being looked at as a potentially consequential event, says Bret Kenwell of eToro. In early June, bitcoin saw trading volumes spike to nearly $150 billion in a day, according to data from CoinGlass. Since then, trading volume has gradually trended lower, this as bitcoin stabilized around $62k to $65k. "June's volume spike was three to four times the 20-day moving average," explains Kenwell. "Combined with support emerging near $60,000, bulls hope that burst may have served as a miniature capitulation event - another step in bitcoin's long but necessary bottoming process." Kenwell cautions that bitcoin may not be in for "an immediate turnaround," but says that "a sustained move higher should bring trading volumes back with it." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com

1112 ET - Chili's is increasing its lead in casual dining, Brinker International CEO Kevin Hochman says on a call with analysts Wednesday. He credits the continued progress to the chain's ongoing turnaround efforts, which focus on long-term sustainable growth, improvements to food, service and atmosphere, and position the brand to be more relevant. "These experience improvements, coupled with our everyday value leadership--represented by a per-person average spend that is $3 to $4 below competition--are supporting a powerful flywheel of traffic and sales growth, margin expansion, and then reinvestment into our business," Hochman says. "We still have room to improve, but our progress gives us confidence that we will sustain traffic gains and repeat business." Shares are up 5.3%. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

1109 ET--Brinker International pulled off a successful turnaround of its Chili's chain, but results are more mixed across its Maggiano's Little Italy chain, where same-restaurant sales slipped 2.5% during the recent quarter. CEO Kevin Hochman says on a call with analysts Wednesday that the chain is seeing some green shoots, noting improvements across certain financial metrics and guest satisfaction scores. Overall, though, "the turnaround at Maggiano's has been mixed," he says. "We've made progress on operational and culinary improvements, but some of that progress has been offset by losses with our core guests from our prior strategy." While the turnaround is happening slower than expected, Hochman says the company has the right strategy in place to drive results in coming quarters.