The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1155 ET - Oil futures add to earlier gains with the market seemingly taking little comfort from a third weekly build in U.S. commercial crude stocks that put inventories in line with their five-year average. The 4.4 million barrel rise in stocks to 428.8 million barrels follows last week's unexpectedly large 17.4 million barrel increase. "The supply shock is easing with production up and demand weakening a bit," says David Russell of TradeStation. "While the energy situation is tight and difficult, worst-case scenarios aren't playing out." WTI is up 1.9% at $86.54 a barrel and Brent is 1.5% higher at $92.37 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1108 ET - Traders of agricultural commodities are bracing for what could be an historic weather event in the winter months this year, based on estimates from the NOAA that give a 90% probability of a so-called "Super El Niño" taking place from September through January 2027. Traders of soft commodities like coffee or cocoa should brace for volatility in prices accompanying the volatile weather. "With the intensifying El Niño towards a very strong event, this increases the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and driving significant shifts in rainfall patterns that could pose significant risk to agricultural commodities," say analysts with Citi Research in a note. Cocoa futures on the ICE are up 1.5% to $6,005/mt, while coffee is down 2.6% to $3.2395/lb. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1101 ET - Russian wheat exports for the month of August are expected to be at their lowest since 2010, according to data from SovEcon. Exports of 2.2 million metric tons, would be well off from 4.5 million tons at this time last year and less than half of the 5-year average of 5 million tons. The impact of elevated fighting in the Russia-Ukraine war on Russian ports is behind this month's cut, says the firm. "All grain terminals in Novorossiysk remain closed for vessel loading, while Taman also remains shut," says SovEcon in a note. "Several more bulk carriers have been hit by drones in recent days, and freight availability remains severely constrained." CBOT wheat futures are up 2.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1058 ET - The United Steelworkers union welcomes the U.S. decision to pause another round of 50% tariffs on imports of Canadian goods but is calling on Ottawa to hold the line for Canada's workers. Marty Warren, USW's national director, says progress on trade negotiations is encouraging, yet existing tariffs continue to hurt steel, aluminum, copper, forestry, auto and other industries in Canada. Warren says the federal government must protect jobs. "This pause provides some breathing room. Canada must use it to keep pushing for an outcome that protects workers, strengthens Canadian industries and builds a more resilient economy." (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1047 ET - Phosphate-based fertilizers coming from Morocco are arriving to the U.S. after being subject to countervailing duties by the Trump Administration, with the first shipment arriving this week, according to a story from Politico. They were first targeted for countervailing duties in late 2020, but since then ag economics have been under duress amid supply chain concerns stemming from geopolitical instability. Growers hope that this allows for fertilizer prices to rapidly cool off and eases the burden on farmers' budgets for the 2027 growing season. Morocco is the producer of over 30% of the world's fertilizer, with 70% of the world's phosphate reserves. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1024 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME are up 0.5% in early trade, starting the day on a positive note as boxed beef cutout prices reported by the USDA are showing improvement. "Cutout [are] surging higher as reports of retailers being short bought," says Ross Baldwin of AgMarket.net in a note. Late yesterday, the USDA reported a $11.58 per hundredweight jump in choice cutout values, bringing them to $391.15 per cwt. Weak cash prices have been a factor pressuring live cattle futures, analysts this week say. Lean hog futures are up 0.1% in morning trade. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1001 ET - Gold prices climb 2% amid a weaker U.S. dollar and falling U.S. government bond yields after the Treasury said it would at least double the amount of bonds it buys back. In early U.S. trade, New York gold futures are up 2.1% to $4,516.10 a troy ounce. Markets now await the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting for more cues on the interest-rate outlook. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1000 ET - U.S. natural gas futures add to yesterday's gains with support from late-summer heat that should keep up power-sector demand. "Weather models remain to the warm side for 2/3 of the U.S.," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. The expectation that tomorrow's EIA storage report will show a below-average weekly injection "is kicking in some short-covering buyers in the early trade this morning," he adds. Nymex natural gas is up 3.4% at $2.87/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0949 ET - Curaleaf's takeover bid for Aurora Cannabis offers attractive upside for shareholders, according to ATB Cormark's Frederico Gomes. In a report, the analyst says the $4.00 per share consideration offers shareholders a 45% premium--or 110% excluding cash--to Aurora's 30-day volume-weighed average price, valuing Aurora at an enterprise value of $171.1 million. While the upfront bid sits below the analyst's previous target, Gomes says future upside is "driven by the $40mm of identified synergies (which we believe are achievable and could be exceeded)," as well as U.S. adult-use cannabis rescheduling, "which we expect to materialize in the coming weeks or months." ATB downgrades the stock rating to tender from outperform and the stock target to C$5.60 from C$6.50. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0948 ET - CBOT wheat futures are up 0.8%, bucking the past few days of selling as elevated fighting between Russia and Ukraine unfolds. "Recent strength in wheat has come from the constant reciprocal drone and missile attacks between Russia and Ukraine which have effectively shut down Black Sea wheat exports," says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing. Both countries are leading shippers of wheat worldwide, meaning that an interruption of supply flowing from the region will have lasting consequences for buyers who typically rely on them. Earlier this week, traders had been selling into the bigger rally in wheat stemming from the war, with traders opting to lock in profits. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0942 ET - Oil futures are higher in early U.S. trading, kept up by the absence of moves to resolve the U.S.-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. The primary near-term price catalysts will continue to be U.S.-Iran negotiations, EBW Analytics says in a note. In the medium to longer term, increased chances of a U.S.-Iran detente, higher Persian Gulf exports even without a formal deal and supply growth outpacing demand growth "all offer pathways to lower prices," the firm says. But a volatile market hinging on the latest headlines "suggests that steep gains cannot be ruled out." WTI is up 0.7% at $85.50 a barrel and Brent is up 0.5% at $91.45. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0916 ET - CBOT grain futures are higher premarket after Pro Farmer released the results of its surveys of Nebraska and Indiana from Tuesday's Midwest Crop Tour. Indiana's corn yield was 183.5 bushels an acre, down 5.3% from last year. Nebraska's corn yield fell by 8.8% from last year, to 163.6 bpa. Pro Farmer doesn't compute yield figures from its survey of soybeans, but it collects pod counts year-to-year--and counts for both states were down from last year, in Nebraska's case nearly 10%. Most-active corn futures on the CBOT are up 0.5%, soybeans rise 0.8%, and wheat up 0.1%.