Auto & Transport Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
08/19

The latest Market Talks covering the Auto and Transport sector. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1503 ET - Oil futures edge up in cautious trading as the market weighs conflicting reports of how much oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz. "Extraordinary workarounds are compensating for a badly impaired shipping route," Siebert Financial's chief investment officer Mark Malek says in a note. "Alternative oil routes demonstrate impressive resilience, but resilience is not the same as excess capacity." Tanker relays and pipelines can buy time but don't replace unrestricted access through the strait, he says. U.S. government figures suggest considerably more oil is escaping the region than vessel-tracking data would seem to indicate, Malek adds. "When the official number and the observable number disagree by this much, the observable number usually wins the argument eventually." WTI settles up 0.5% at $84.94 a barrel and Brent rises 0.2% to $91.02. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1322 ET - Mizuho analysts say they see growing evidence that Uber could ultimately benefit from the rise of autonomous vehicles, which they expect to soothe investors' worries of disruption from companies that actually own AV technology. While Waymo has had success in San Francisco that demonstrates strong product-market fit, a broader AV ecosystem is emerging as Uber partners with WeRide, Pony.ai and other AV players, the analysts say. Continued expansion with those non-Waymo partners "should increase investor confidence that the long-term AV ecosystem is likely to support multiple suppliers rather than a winner-take-all outcome," the analysts say. While diversification may take time, operational data points "reinforce our view AV adoption can expand the overall category without necessarily undermining Uber's platform position," they say. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)

0730 ET - Gulf markets are likely to remain focused this week on whether negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz translate into a visible improvement in shipping activity, Iridium Advisors says. Higher oil prices are no longer lifting regional markets uniformly, with investors distinguishing between companies benefiting from tighter energy and logistics markets and those exposed to slower trade, travel disruption or margin pressure, the firm says. The final large wave of second-quarter earnings calls should also remain in focus, with 26 scheduled this week before the reporting calendar thins out, Iridium says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0411 ET - South Korean shipping company HMM's earnings could come under pressure, as the global container shipping market is expected to face worsening oversupply from 2027, KB Securities' Kang Seong-jin and Kim Ji-yun say. Fears that fleet supply could exceed cargo demand through 2029 are weighing on investor sentiment, the analysts write in a note. Container ships scheduled for delivery amount to 3.31 million twenty-foot equivalent units in 2027, 5.25 million TEUs in 2028 and 3.78 million TEUs in 2029, they add. That would be equivalent to 9.8%, 15.6% and 11.2%, respectively, of the current global container fleet's total capacity. KB expects HMM's operating profit to fall 23% this year. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

0334 ET - Brent crude rises above $90 a barrel as prospects for a near-term peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fade. In early European trading, the global oil benchmark is up 0.1% to $91.04 a barrel, while WTI futures gain 0.5% to $84.95 a barrel. "President Trump indicated little interest in extending the expired agreement with Iran, while major differences remain over Hormuz," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. Meanwhile, shipping security risks remain. Yemen's Iranian-allied Houthi rebels are escalating attacks along the country's Red Sea coast, pushing closer to the key Bab al-Mandeb Strait. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0251 ET - Volvo Car's upcoming strategic update is expected to serve as a timeline reset, Deutsche Bank analyst Nikita Papaccio writes. Management will likely soften its tone and push expectations on both its 8% EBIT margin and positive free cash flow targets into the early 2030s, Papaccio says. Intensifying competition in Europe and China, emerging trade barriers across multiple jurisdictions, and severe manufacturing overcapacity are forcing a pragmatic reassessment, he adds. Aggressive self-help measures, including a 23 billion Swedish kronor cost-reduction program, are being heavily diluted by rising structural costs, raw material inflation, and low capacity utilization. Deutsche Bank rates Volvo Car at hold with a 21 kronor target price. Shares closed at 19.01 kronor. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

2043 ET - Near-term cyclical headwinds have again taken the shine off an otherwise robust structural story for Freightways, says Forsyth Barr. Freightways delivered a strong FY26 result. The company expanded its market share and boosted earnings with the VT Freight Express acquisition in Australia. Still, analyst Andy Bowley notes management gave a somewhat cautious outlook for FY27. "We still believe Freightways can grow profits at well above long-term trend levels (+5% compound average EPS growth over both 10- and 20-year history) over the next 12 months, but consensus earnings expectations are likely to moderate in the absence of further favorable M&A," Forsyth Barr says. It retains a neutral call on Freightways, which is down 0.5% at 13.35 New Zealand dollars.

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