The bond market's rollercoaster ride this week created a more challenging environment for CFOs considering issuing debt.
Government bond yields declined Wednesday after the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level in 19 years due to a range of factors: investor worries about fiscal deficits; heavy corporate borrowing to finance AI; and inflation stemming from the war in Iran. The reversal followed an announcement from the Treasury Department that it would increase buybacks of longer-term notes and bonds.
Corporate bond issuance has been on a tear this year, driven in large part by megasize deals from hyperscalers looking to finance AI investments, including with long-dated bonds. So far this month-often a sleepy time in the corporate bond market-investment-grade companies have issued $153.44 billion worth of bonds, a record amount for August, following a record June and July, according to Dealogic.
I reached out to bankers and advisers to get their take on what this week's wild ride in the bond market means for corporate issuers. A few takeaways: Companies are buckling up for a higher-yield environment; spreads-the amount a company pays above a benchmark Treasury-may widen; and those issuing debt may do so with shorter, cheaper, maturities.
Here are their responses, condensed and lightly edited:
Mike Kendrot, head of capital markets & advisory Americas, ING
This has been an ongoing theme for some time now but even the most optimistic CFOs and treasurers now forecast issuance scenarios that yields are unlikely to fall materially near-term. Those with manageable refinancing needs are looking to go shorter than in the past or continue to tap the commercial paper market, while others have sought out short-term prepayable debt options or issued in European currencies to reduce the overall coupon rates.
Jonny Fine, global head of investment grade, Goldman Sachs
We're going to get a much lower run rate of issuance from the AI ecosystem. So if that's been dragging the average duration of our supply market longer, there's going to be less volume, because most of the hyperscalers have communicated that they're largely done with their U.S. dollar financing programs in 2026. The rest of the corporate world, the anecdotal evidence that we have thus far is that they will probably finance a little bit shorter. So instead of doing 10s and 30s, they'll probably do 5s and 10s. Instead of doing 10 years, they might do 7 years.
Amol Dhargalkar, chairman, Chatham Financial
This is part of an underlying trend of the market continuing to be worried about U.S. (and other sovereign) fiscal deficits. We haven't seen corporate borrowing spreads head materially higher, and as a result it really highlights the benefits and need to be proactive around hedging rising Treasury yields. We're continuing to see high demand around pre-issuance hedging particularly from investment grade issuers, partly driven by these market movements.
Winnie Cisar, global head of strategy, CreditSights
We think the selloff is attributable to a mix of factors and ultimately comes down to indigestion in the primary markets, which was reflected in higher attrition rates and wider new issue concessions in recent deals. This is not particularly surprising given how robust the July and August calendars, two typically lighter months, have been. For corporate issuers, we expect primary markets to be a bit choppier in the remaining months of the year as we see a step up in rates volatility, which is likely to weigh on spreads.
Nathaniel Rosenbaum, head of U.S. high-grade credit strategy, JPMorgan Chase
The recent selloff in bonds has done little to curb corporate issuers' ability or willingness to raise debt. That said, the market is rationally bifurcated between hyperscalers and the rest of the market, with hyperscaler spreads materially wider under the weight of continued heavy issuance and little prospect of it slowing materially over the foreseeable future. We most recently raised our spread target from 85 basis points to 95 basis points in June, and high-grade spreads have widened from 83 basis points to 96 basis points since then, so we believe markets are currently trading close to fair value. Also read: The Treasury Market's Coveted Status as a Safe Haven Is Fading
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CFO Moves
Coty, the New York-based beauty company, named Soraya Benchikh as CFO, effective Sept. 1. Benchikh was previously CFO at British American Tobacco. She succeeds Laurent Mercier, who held the role for five years.
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