Fed Minutes to Offer Clues on Fed's Rate-Hike Divide

Dow Jones
08/19

Many investors will be turning their heads today to the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting for clues on where interest rates might be headed next. But they may find that the minutes, set for release at 2 p.m., feel especially out-of-date.

In July, three Fed presidents dissented against the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady. They argued that the central bank should be hiking interest rates instead, since core inflation, then sitting at 2.6%, was still well above their 2% target, and inflationary pressures in the energy and tech sectors could broaden across the economy.

But data released in August push against their case for hikes.

July's consumer price index showed core prices, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, increased 2.5%. That marked core inflation's lowest reading since March 2021. Meanwhile, the July jobs report revealed the U.S. labor market lost 23,000 jobs in the month. Average hourly earnings-which can become inflationary if they accelerate too quickly-hit their lowest level in more than five years.

This data will "make it difficult for minutes to significantly shift the (now lower) market implied probability of rate hikes," Citi Research's U.S. Chief Economist Andrew Hollenhorst argued in a note Monday.

Markets have already priced in lower chances of an imminent interest-rate hike. A month ago, traders placed 51% odds on a hike in September, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Today, those odds are just 34%.

What Wednesday's minutes will provide, however, is a clearer understanding of just how wide the divide between the Fed's hawks and doves was during the July meeting. The minutes could indicate their thinking on how to characterize or consider inflationary pressures moving forward.

They "may give a sense of how much tolerance the rest of the Committee has for above-target inflation," JPMorgan's Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli wrote in a note.

Some committee members have already provided more insight into their thinking on inflation in public statements this month.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who both dissented in July, argued in public appearances after the meeting that minor adjustments higher in the fed-funds rate now could prevent the Fed from needing to make sharper adjustments later.

In a LinkedIn post, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, another of the dissenters, hammered home that this is now the sixth calendar year of elevated inflation. She said the Fed should increase rates to fight inflation that has been above-target for too long.

"The longer we wait to take action to bring inflation back to our 2% objective, the more challenging it will be to bring it back down and the more expensive it will be for the American people," Hammack wrote.

Others have indicated they believe things could be starting to turn, and patience might be prudent.

"I'm encouraged by the last three months," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a recent interview with Bloomberg News. "If we get three, four months in a row like what we saw in June, I will be feeling much better that we are on path back to 2%."

 

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