Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
08/18

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0854 ET - The first day of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour concluded with lower ear counts for corn in Ohio and South Dakota, as well as soybean pod counts under where they were last year. Surveys estimate Ohio's corn yield at 180.2 bushels an acre, which is well down from 185.7 bpa the year prior. In South Dakota, yield was pegged at 149.1 bpa, down 14.4% from 174.2 bpa last year. The pod count for soybeans surveyed in South Dakota fell 20% from the prior year, while in Ohio they were down 7%. Corn and soybean futures on the CBOT are higher premarket, with corn up 0.3% and soybeans climbing 0.6%. Wheat futures are virtually flat. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0633 ET - The proportion of fund managers who believe gold is undervalued jumped this month, according to Bank of America's global fund manager survey for August. A net 16% of fund managers surveyed believe the previous metal trades below a fair valuation. This is the highest proportion since March 2023 and up from 6% in July--the first reporting period that a majority of investors said gold was undervalued since 2024, BofA says. Gold contracts have fallen sharply in recent months after peaking above $5,300 a troy ounce in January. However, prices have strengthened so far in August. New York contracts trade down 0.5% at $4,450.30 an ounce Tuesday.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0608 ET - Palm oil ended higher on stronger soybean oil and crude oil prices, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Near-term prices are likely to be driven by persistent concerns about extreme weather and El Nino in the coming months, he adds. Ng sees crude palm oil prices support at 4,800 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,950 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery closed 39 ringgit higher at 4,860 ringgit a ton. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0558 ET - BHP's full-year results underline new CEO Brandon Craig's promising start, head of markets at AJ Bell, Dan Coatsworth, writes. Copper has driven the miner's performance and has helped deliver a healthy increase in the dividend, he adds. The market will be watching BHP's M&A ambitions closely after Craig's predecessor, Mike Henry, attempted to merge with Anglo American, Coatsworth says. BHP's London shares rise 0.4% to 3,256 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0343 ET - Gold prices slip, pressured by higher oil prices and higher U.S. Treasury yields, which increase the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding bullion. In early European trading, New York futures are down 0.4% to $4,455.30 a troy ounce. Still, prices have risen more than 10% on the month. "Gold has nevertheless remained supported by renewed investor demand and stronger central-bank purchases, particularly from China," analysts at MUFG say. "Going forward, the Fed's July meeting minutes and Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks will be key for the rate outlook." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

2400 ET - The cost environment for miners "has shifted materially" as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, BHP says in its FY results. Higher energy prices have raised inflation across key regions, it says. In Australia, that's added to already elevated domestic inflation, says the miner. For Chile and Canada, it is reigniting pressure after inflation had started to ease back towards central-bank targets, it says. BHP notes that disruption to trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz has also put "significant upward pressure" on sulfuric acid, diesel and ammonia markets. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2351 ET - Beijing is expected to reaccelerate fiscal support in 2H, helping to keep economic growth in China broadly consistent with the official 4.5%-5% target range for 2026, according to BHP, the world's No. 1 miner. China's economic momentum has slowed recently, weighed down by muted consumer spending and slumping investment. "While growth remains uneven across sectors, with domestic demand softer and the property sector continuing to act as a drag, exports have continued to perform strongly, helping to sustain industrial activity and demand for imported raw materials," BHP says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2258 ET - Palm oil rises in early Asian trading, driven by overnight gains in soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Higher palm olein prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also seen supporting palm oil prices, he says. However, recent weakness in exports could weigh on prices, he adds. Ng expects prices to be supported at 4,750 ringgit a ton with resistance at 4,850 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery is up 7 ringgit at 4,828 ringgit a ton.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2228 ET - Iron ore is trading steadily in early Asian trading. Oversupply pressures are likely to intensify due to rising supplies from Australia and Brazil as well as new sources, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. That would keep a lid on iron-ore price gains, they add. The most-traded iron-ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is flat at 708.0 yuan a metric ton. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

2216 ET - BHP's consensus-beating annual results top off what was a very good year for the world's No. 1 miner, says Jefferies. The growth in BHP's copper earnings--to account for 54% of annual underlying Ebitda--partially justifies a rerating of BHP's equity valuation over the past year, it says. "This is an excellent set of results for BHP," the bank says. While Jefferies thinks BHP's shares could gain further in the coming six months or so, it does expect company-specific tailwinds to subside. Volumes in Chile are now expected to decline, it says, adding that the increase in Ebitda from FY 2025 to FY 2026 was almost entirely due to the impact of higher prices. Jefferies reiterates a hold rating. It has a A$65.00 target on the stock. Shares are up 3.0% at A$64.09. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2157 ET - Base metals decline in Asian trade. Weaker-than-expected economic data in China is likely weighing on sentiment across the base metals sector, say ANZ Research analysts in a note. They cite a decline in fixed asset investment and soft domestic consumption. The data follows signs of softening domestic demand, they say. Recent copper premiums on imports to China have fallen, suggesting that buyers are balking at higher prices, ANZ adds. The three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange is down 0.3% at $14,120.00 a metric ton. Aluminum slips 0.4%, nickel falls 0.1% and zinc is down 0.6%. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

2100 ET - Gold rises in early Asian trade. Easing expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes are likely placing downward pressure on the dollar, say ANZ Research analysts, who cite a trade-weighted gauge of the currency hitting its lowest level since May. This makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper for many buyers and has likely triggered renewed investment demand. Strong central-bank gold-buying is also supporting the precious metal, they note. Spot gold is up 0.2% at $4,429.15 an ounce.

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