Agricultural machinery maker Deere will report fiscal third-quarter earnings on Thursday morning, just ahead of the 2026 U.S. harvest. Investors shouldn't expect a bountiful quarter.

Wall Street expects earnings per share of $4.69 from agricultural equipment sales of about $7.3 billion. A year ago, Deere reported EPS of $4.75 from sales of about $7.3 billion.

Not much growth is expected. A long-hoped-for ag recovery has been elusive. Deere generated equipment sales of about $35 billion in fiscal year 2022 and $41 billion in fiscal year 2023, the best years in recent history. In early 2022, corn prices were routinely north of $6 per bushel and traded above $8 in early 2022. Corn prices are a reasonable proxy for farmer income. And more income means more money to spend on new equipment.

Farmers have struggled more recently amid falling crop prices and high inflation, both of which have hit Deere's business too. The company's equipment sales fell to about $32 billion in fiscal year 2024 and $28 billion in fiscal year 2025. Sales in 2026 are expected to be about $28 billion before recovering to $30 billion in 2027.

Investors probably won't get much insight into fiscal year 2027 yet, but they should get an update about 2026. In May, Deere management said it expected fiscal year 2026 net income of between $4.5 billion and $5 billion, which was a touch disappointing at the time. It matched Wall Street estimates, but Deere earned more money, about $5 billion, in fiscal year 2025.

JPMorgan analyst Tami Zakaria doesn't expect a positive update on Thursday, pointing out in a preview report that data from Brazil and North America are trending "worse than Deere's outlook."

Deere expects large-equipment sales to fall 15% to 20% in North America and about 15% in South America. That isn't great. Zakaria recently cut her fiscal year 2027 estimates. Now, she expects EPS of $20.49, down from $22.81. The Wall Street consensus for 2027 is $22.19, up from $18.08 expected this year.

Investor sentiment is also currently "skewed negative," added Zakaria, who rates shares Hold and has a $570 price target. That could be the silver lining in the quarter: Expectations aren't high. Coming into Wednesday trading, Deere stock was down about 1% over the past month, although that left shares up about 20% over the past year.

The stock has held in there as investors wait for things to improve.

Deere stock is trading for about 27 times earnings expected over the coming 12 months. That's up from 12 times three years ago, when the ag business was healthier. Deere stock, however, trades like a cyclical company, with a low PE ratio when earnings are peaking and a high PE ratio when earnings are depressed.