After years of disappointment, investors are finally beginning to believe in Target's turnaround story. Its stock-while still far below its pandemic-era highs-has surged more than 50% since the start of the year.

That reflects a better-than-expected fiscal first quarter, along with moves to recapture its "Tar-jay" heyday. Those changes come as CEO Michael Fiddelke lays out his strategic vision for the retailer, which includes improving merchandise and the overall customer experience.

Wall Street isn't totally convinced. Only 12 of the 42 analysts who cover the stock have a Buy rating or the equivalent on the shares, with an average price target slightly below where the stock currently stands.

Nonetheless, consensus calls for Target to earn $2.35 a share, a nearly 15% increase from the year-ago period, on revenue of $26.2 billion, when it reports fiscal second-quarter results on Wednesday.

After shares lost 40% of their value in the past five years, some investors will likely need more than a couple of upbeat earnings reports to believe the company's comeback is for real.

However, if Target can deliver another strong report and provide a reassuring outlook for the key back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons, that could go a long way toward convincing some that the worst is truly over.