Global Equities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
08/18

The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1023 GMT - Speculative bets on a rise in global semiconductor stocks are considered the most crowded trade followed by bets on a weaker Japanese yen, according to Bank of America's global fund manager survey for August. Some 53% of investors say long positions in global semiconductors--which expect these stocks to rise--is the most crowded trade, albeit down from last month's record high of 83%. Short yen positions, which bet on the currency falling, is considered the second most crowded trade with 12% of investors in favor of this view. This is followed closely by long Magnificent Seven, which includes major tech stocks such as Amazon, Apple and Tesla, with 11% of investors considering this the most crowded trade. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1021 GMT - Investor sentiment is at the third most bullish since 2022 this month, according to Bank of America's August global fund manager survey. Cash levels are at an 'uber-low' of 3.5% this month, down from 3.6% last month, while global equity allocation surges to a net 56% overweight, the highest since November 2021, the survey shows. The consensus conviction is a 'no landing' economic scenario--where the economy won't slow down despite high interest rates. Investors don't expect cuts in AI capex, while positioning continues to recommend investors to retreat or rotate within risk assets rather than reload. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1017 GMT - Investors expect the Brent crude oil price to average at a higher level by year-end than in July, Bank of America's August global fund manager survey shows. Investors in the survey expect Brent oil to trade at $76 per barrel in a weighted average forecast by year-end, up from July's forecast of $71 per barrel, it says. Brent currently trades at $91.04, up 0.2% on the day. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1002 GMT - Investors are allocating more money to stocks than at any time since November 2021, according to Bank of America's August global fund manager survey. A net 56% of fund managers hold more stocks in portfolios than global benchmarks, the survey finds, the highest level since November 2021. Fund managers have been overweight equities for 14 consecutive months, the survey says, as investors double down on bullish stock-market bets. Just 3.5% of assets managed by fund managers are held in cash, an "uber-low" level and a 0.1 percentage point fall on July, the survey says. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

1001 GMT - Many shoppers are turning to promotions to keep grocery costs low in the U.K., according to market researcher Worldpanel by Numerator's data for the four weeks through Aug. 9. The percentage of sales that included a deal last month hit 31% during the period, the highest level this year, the report says. However, premium own-label growth was 11%, and value own-label products remain a small and declining part of the market, according to the data. Around one-fifth of shoppers say they are struggling financially, though 39% are now feeling financially comfortable, according to the report. (aimee.look@wsj.com)

0959 GMT - More investors consider the dollar to be overvalued in August compared to a month ago, according to Bank of America's latest global fund manager survey. A net 39% of investors say the dollar is overvalued in the August survey, up from 34% in July. The survey also shows a net 5% of investors think the euro is undervalued, down from 10% last month, while 8% say sterling is overvalued compared to 12% last month. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0958 GMT - BHP's full-year results underline new CEO Brandon Craig's promising start, head of markets at AJ Bell, Dan Coatsworth, writes. Copper has driven the miner's performance and has helped deliver a healthy increase in the dividend, he adds. The market will be watching BHP's M&A ambitions closely after Craig's predecessor, Mike Henry, attempted to merge with Anglo American, Coatsworth says. BHP's London shares rise 0.4% to 3,256 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0947 GMT - U.K. like-for-like grocery inflation slowed in July, marking the fifth consecutive month of easing prices, according to market researcher Worldpanel by Numerator. Like-for-like grocery inflation slowed to 2.1% in the four weeks to August 9, making it the slowest print since October 2024, the data provider wrote in a note. Financial confidence among shoppers rose to the highest level since November 2021, with 39% now feeling financially comfortable, says Worldpanel's Sally Ball. However, 20% of shoppers say that they are struggling, she adds. (aimee.look@wsj.com)

0933 GMT - British energy company BP could resume buybacks in 2027 as it cuts debt and shores up its balance sheet, Berenberg analysts write. The company will retain its focus on paying down net debt via disposals, they say. The analysts expect more than $6 billion in additional disposal proceeds in 2027, which could give it cash for buybacks, they say. Under current oil and gas price assumptions, Berenberg expects $500 million in quarterly buybacks from the second quarter of 2027, the analysts say. This would deliver a full-year buyback of $1.5 billion for 2027. Shares rise 1.7% to 528.30 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0927 GMT - Ocado remains the fastest growing U.K. grocer, with sales rising 13.1% on year over the 12 weeks to Aug. 9, says market researcher Worldpanel by Numerator. Online shopping has remained the fastest-growing channel, and had an 8.3% uptick in shopper visits, the note says. However, budget grocery retailer Lidl gained the most share this period, adding 0.5% to hit 8.8% of the market, and bringing in more shoppers on-year for the period. Ocado shares are up 2.47% at 240.60 pence. (aimee.look@wsj.com)

0911 GMT - H&M is likely to benefit from EU regulatory changes that should soften the blow of a toughening demand and cost backdrop, Jefferies analysts write. "Our expectations for midterm top-line progress and broad gross margin stability reflect our ongoing view that the recent EU changes on the de minimis front are likely to reduce competitive tensions." A similar change in the U.S. hurt Shein's momentum, as first-quarter revenues fell by over 14% on year with volumes presumably down by a much greater extent, they add. Regulatory changes across many Western markets are likely to disrupt Chinese platforms, which have been a significant deflationary force in Europe, Jefferies says. It rates H&M stock at hold and lifts its price target to 160 Swedish kronor from 154 kronor. Shares rise 3.5% to 178.75 kronor. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0851 GMT - Mercari's stock deserves a premium valuation relative to its peers in the Japanese internet sector, given its double-digit earnings-per-share growth, Hiroko Sato at Jefferies says in a note. The customer-to-customer shopping platform operator's core operating profit guidance of around 45 billion yen for the fiscal year ending in June 2027 appears conservative to the analyst, who has a forecast of Y54.1 billion. Inflation in Japan and the U.S. could continue to support demand for secondhand goods, while cross-border expansion may drive meaningful gross-merchandise-value and earnings growth, she adds. Jefferies raises its target price to Y5,800 from Y4,380 and maintains a buy rating. Shares last closed 3.0% lower at Y4,473.

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