Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
08/19

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1951 ET - Oil rises in Asian early trade amid growing concerns over supply disruptions. Iran fired two ballistic missiles toward the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, triggering air defenses in the UAE, according to that country's Ministry of Defense, which said the missiles targeted maritime traffic but eventually dropped into the sea. Also on Tuesday, an Iranian attack hit the engine room of a bulk carrier in the strait east of Oman. "Renewed attacks in the Middle East raise the prospect of ongoing disruptions to supply," ANZ Research analysts say in a research report. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.5% higher at $85.34 per barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1503 ET - Oil futures edge up in cautious trading as the market weighs conflicting reports of how much oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz. "Extraordinary workarounds are compensating for a badly impaired shipping route," Siebert Financial's chief investment officer Mark Malek says in a note. "Alternative oil routes demonstrate impressive resilience, but resilience is not the same as excess capacity." Tanker relays and pipelines can buy time but don't replace unrestricted access through the strait, he says. U.S. government figures suggest considerably more oil is escaping the region than vessel-tracking data would seem to indicate, Malek adds. "When the official number and the observable number disagree by this much, the observable number usually wins the argument eventually." WTI settles up 0.5% at $84.94 a barrel and Brent rises 0.2% to $91.02. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1501 ET - U.S. natural gas futures rise as weather models add some heat to the near-term outlook, while LNG feedgas flows continue recovering. "This market will remain heavily reliant upon a long-awaited upswing in export activity once LNG infrastructure maintenance is completed but for now, the short supply in Europe that has been boosting gas prices remains largely inoperable as a supportive consideration to the U.S. market," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. For now the market "appears too late to sell but a bit too early to buy," the firm adds. Nymex natural gas settles up 3.2% at $2.776/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1205 ET - Mattr is benefiting from the surge in demand for data centers and utilities, which drove backlogs to near-record highs. According to RBC's Sabahat Khan, the company is "well positioned for H2" as data center sales expand into a "growing contributor," expected to more than double in 2026 to about 5% of consolidated revenue. The momentum drove 2Q revenue up 23.4% year-over-year to meet preliminary guidance, alongside a 260 basis-point expansion in adjusted Ebitda margin to 15.8%. Growth was anchored by record output levels at Xerxes, where customer planning horizons now extend to "firm orders for delivery throughout 2027," as well as a 29.1% revenue jump in Connection Technologies. RBC raised its target price by C$9 to C$22. Shares are down 2.5% to C$18.98. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1147 ET - Oil futures extend gains after President Trump says there are no talks occurring or scheduled with Iran, and that the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating. "There's no talks happening and that's all that the market heard," says NinjaTrader Group senior economist Tracy Shuchart. While workarounds have helped keep oil prices from soaring, the stress is showing up in products with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries adding to the problem, she adds. Crude market volatility has eased, but "I think we're higher-for-longer oil and seem to be rotating Brent around $90 and WTI around $85, which is still $20 to $25 higher than last year," Shuchart adds. WTI is up 1.2% at $85.49 a barrel and Brent is 0.9% higher at $91.71. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1057 ET - Stocks in Abu Dhabi extend gains from the previous session, while Qatar stocks continue to fall, with their benchmark indices rising 0.2% and falling 0.5%, respectively. Abu Dhabi's relative strength looks constructive, supported by resilient earnings and its banking and telecom sectors, says Mazen Abou Ismail, head of trading desk at FFA Private Bank Dubai. Qatar remains more vulnerable given its exposure to regional energy and LNG-related risks, helping explain the continued weakness, he says. Geopolitics remains the main driver of GCC sentiment, but differences in fundamentals, valuations and liquidity are increasingly driving relative performance across markets, Abou Ismail says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1054 ET - Rising interest-rate expectations for the Riksbank have failed to support the Swedish krona, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. The evidence instead suggests that, in the short term, the krona tends to drive rate expectations rather than vice versa, he says. One possible reason for this is the lower liquidity in Swedish capital markets, prompting investors to sell Swedish assets in the event of geopolitical shocks. Krona movements could also be feeding directly into rate expectations via imported inflation. A lasting end to the Middle East conflict would support the krona relative to the Norwegian krone, he says. The krona would benefit from lower oil prices and wouldn't be affected by the pricing out of rate rises. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1030 ET - U.S. natural gas futures continue their recent range-bound pattern, falling one day and rising the next, with summer heat-driven demand offset by high production and ample inventories. "Record output and the storage overhang are simply overpowering whatever residual weather-driven power burn is still left in the late-summer schedule," Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group says in a note. "Nothing in the current outlook screams massive incremental power-burn demand." Nymex natural gas is up 0.9% at $2.715/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0940 ET - Fading hopes for an agreement anytime soon to resolve the U.S.-Iran conflict keep oil futures buoyant with both sides claiming to have control of the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping disruption remains a concern for crude oil and product supply, with the drawdown in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its lowest level since the early 1980s compounding the unease, Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo says in a note. "Prices stay hostage to Hormuz transit data and any signal from the Iran-Oman channel. A durable reopening would cap upside, while further escalation points toward a retest of the $95 to $100/barrel band for Brent." Brent is up 0.2% at $91.09 a barrel. WTI is 0.9%higher at $85.27.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0856 ET - The sharp increase in U.S. Treasury yields, with 30-year yields hitting their highest since 2007, comes despite recent weaker economic data reducing expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve interest-rate hike, capital.com's Daniela Hathorn says in a note. Long-dated yields are rising due to risks of persistent inflation as the Middle East conflict raises energy prices. Additionally, heavy government borrowing and growing competition for capital--including debt issuance associated with the AI investment boom--are lifting longer-term borrowing costs, the senior market analyst says. Continued disruption in the Red Sea represents yet more uncertainty, Hathorn says. Thirty-year Treasury yields hit a high of 5.337%, Tradeweb data show. Ten-year yields hit a 19-month high of 4.748%. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0848 ET - The rise in energy prices stemming from the Iran war poses a headwind to eurozone growth and the euro, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. Europe faces a terms of trade hit from a further surge in energy prices, particularly natural gas prices, he says. Europe delayed winter gas purchases after the onset of the war and this appears to be backfiring, he says. Drought across Europe is also affecting food production and boosting energy demand. MUFG estimates that the euro is currently about 2.5%-3.0% overvalued versus the dollar. The euro could underperform if the above factors start to impact sentiment and economic activity, Halpenny says. The euro last trades steady at $1.1574. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0835 ET - Bitcoin trades modestly lower along with U.S. stock futures as the prospect of a deal to end the Iran war dims. President Trump said he wouldn't seek an extension of the 60-day truce between the U.S. and Iran, which expired Monday, and threatened to bomb Oman. Markets are showing a more cautious tone as investors contend with rising long-term bond yields, renewed geopolitical uncertainty and some fresh nervousness around AI-related stocks, Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn says in a note. Bitcoin falls 0.1% to $64,274, LSEG data show.

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