Australian Equities Roundup

Dow Jones
08/19
 

0213 GMT - While BlueScope Steel is delivering good cost savings, Macquarie questions what will drive its stock from here. "U.S. conditions are as good as they get," while conditions in Australia and New Zealand are weak, Macquarie says. BlueScope's execution is strong and the prospect of capital returns is attractive, "however we think these factors are largely discounted" in the steelmaker's share price, it says. The bank trims its target on the stock to A$34.35 from A$35.95 and downgrades to neutral from outperform. Shares are up 2.5% at A$32.29. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

0205 GMT - BHP could be expected to take "a more cash flow-oriented approach" to dividends ahead, as commodity prices trade above long-term averages, Macquarie says. BHP has a policy of paying a minimum of 50% of underlying profit at every reporting period. The miner surprised with a final dividend of US$0.99/share, a 72% payout ratio. Macquarie attributes the beat--22% higher than consensus--to stronger free cash flow and proceeds from a silver-streaming deal. The bank raises its target on BHP by roughly 6% to 58.50 Australian dollars a share. It reiterates a neutral rating. Shares are down 0.1% at A$63.81 following a 2.7% gain Tuesday. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

0128 GMT - Citi thinks there's a modest downside risk to FY 2027 earnings and cash-flow forecasts for Evolution Mining. That reflects higher-than-anticipated guidance on costs and capex, it says. It could be partially offset by stronger gold prices, Citi says. The bank also notes that Evolution's copper-price assumptions for the year ahead are lower than its own. Citi has a neutral rating on Evolution, with a A$13.70/share target. The stock is up 0.2% at A$13.67. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

0113 GMT - Judo Capital keeps its bull at Morgans after flagging more strong growth across its current fiscal year. Analyst Nathan Lead keeps a buy rating on the Australian business lender, telling clients in a note that he expects 12% annual growth in gross loans and advances, which is consistent with the company's target of above-industry growth. Lead is looking for a FY 2027 net interest margin of 3.15%, up from the 3.13% that Judo reported for the 12 months through June 30. He acknowledges the risks that come with Judo's higher relative exposure to economic cycles, but sees compensation from the potential returns on offer. Morgans trims its target price 3.4% to 1.42 Australian dollars. Shares are down 4.7% at A$1.02, but still up by 10% so far this week. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

0113 GMT - While Evolution Mining raised its final dividend by 62% to a record high, "the market was looking for more," says Macquarie. The FY payout of 41 Australian cents a share, while a 2% beat versus Macquarie's expectations, is a 5% miss to consensus, the bank notes. FY27 guidance is also soft due to lower-than-anticipated forecast copper output and higher-than-anticipated all-in sustaining costs, it says. Macquarie has a neutral rating and A$11.50/share target on Evolution. Shares are up 0.6% at A$13.73, after initially falling as low as A$13.16. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

0101 GMT - Santos's interim dividend of 11.6 U.S. cents a share was well ahead of consensus hopes, driving a 3.2% increase in its share price to 8.37 Australian dollars today. Santos effectively paid out all of its 1H free cash flow of US$377 million. That means Santos is "paying it forward," Macquarie says. It is encouraged by this approach "given there wasn't all-in free cash flow to pay out this half on timing and commissioning issues." Santos experienced teething problems at its Barossa natural-gas project in Australia and the Pikka Phase 1 oil project in Alaska during the half. It also lifted five equity marketed cargoes before the end of 2Q, but didn't get receipts until after 2H began. Macquarie had an outperform call on Santos heading into today's result. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

0053 GMT - Whitehaven Coal's annual profit misses expectations due to slightly lower revenue, inventory movement, and higher depreciation and amortization, Barrenjoey says. Underlying profit of 227 million Australian dollars is 8% below consensus and 15% lower than Barrenjoey's forecast. The coal miner's FY dividend of A$0.10/share is 3% below consensus but in line with Barrenjoey's expectations. "FY27 guidance provided with volumes a touch soft, unit cost in line but capex lower, which may see consensus earnings and cash flow downgrades," says Barrenjoey. The bank has a neutral rating and A$7.50/share target on Whitehaven. Shares are down 3.1% at A$7.52. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

0011 GMT - Temple & Webster's bull at RBC is concerned that the furniture retailer's margin guidance offers no real clue about FY 2027 revenue expectations. Analyst Wei-Weng Chen says guidance for a FY 2027 Ebitda margin of 5%-6% is extremely ambiguous. Working backwards, he warns clients that the Australian company's guidance allows for revenue growth of 20%, contraction of 17%, and anything in between. Realistically, he thinks the online retailer is expecting revenue to be flat for the period. RBC has a last-published outperform rating on the stock and a target price of 8.00 Australian dollars. Shares are down 15% at A$4.30. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

2341 GMT - Mirvac's share price looks like a good bet to rise after reassuring nervy investors with its FY26 result and outlook, signals Citi. "Given the buy side negativity heading into the results around FY27 earnings guidance, we believe Mirvac's earnings should be received positively," analyst Suraj Nebhani says. Mirvac pointed to FY27 operating EPS of 13.2-13.4 Australian cents. That is up 3% on FY26 at the midpoint of the range and broadly in line with consensus expectations, Citi says. It's underpinned by forecast settlement of 2,800-3,100 residential lots in FY27, with 63% of earnings already secured via pre-sales. "Balance sheet metrics improved significantly, with gearing falling to 24.1%, enabling a newly announced A$200 million buyback," Citi adds. Mirvac ended Tuesday at A$1.74.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2323 GMT - Imaging-tech provider Pro Medicus had a strong FY26 and expressed optimism about the future, but the stock doesn't look cheap to Jefferies. Pro Medicus has signaled increasing levels of wholesale adoption of its Cloud product. It also sees customers opting for all three core products--Viewer, Archive and Worklist--with its cardiology module. "We acknowledge the proven quality of the business, but note that at a share price of circa A$200.00, our analysis suggests the market is assuming Pre Medicus will have a market share of the U.S. PACS-only market of circa 38% by FY35," analyst David Stanton says. That looks aggressive, he adds. Jefferies retains a hold call on Pro Medicus and raises its price target by 4.3% to A$196.40/share. Pro Medicus ended Tuesday at A$196.75. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2319 GMT - Australian homebuilder Mirvac's annual result was better than Jefferies expected. Mirvac pointed to FY27 operating EPS growth of 2.3-3.9%. That would be a solid outcome against a tough backdrop for residential property development, analyst Andrew Dodds says. Mirvac also signaled it would settle 2,800-3,100 residential lots in FY27. That is materially ahead of consensus hopes for 2,347 settlements, Jefferies says. "Gross margins of 23.9% (ex-impaired) are back above the 18-22% target, up from 17.5% in FY25, with all impaired projects now settled," Jefferies adds. It had a hold call and A$1.80/share price target on Mirvac ahead of today's result. Mirvac ended Tuesday at A$1.74. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2249 GMT - Jefferies expects little opposition from investors in plumbing-fittings supplier Reliance Worldwide to the takeover offer from the private equity arm of Brookfield Asset Management. Brookfield is offering A$4.75/share in cash, valuing Reliance's equity at A$3.55 billion. It has raised its offer three times and will now conduct due diligence after Reliance signaled a willingness to support a bid at current levels. Analyst Ramoun Lazar notes Reliance disclosed the offer alongside a cut to expectations for FY27, driven by profit-margin headwinds. "Given another downgrade and little prospect of improvement likely for another 12 months investors are likely to support any formal proposal," Jefferies says. It downgrades Reliance to "hold," from "buy," while raising its price target to be in line with Brookfield's offer. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2231 GMT - Cochlear's opportunities for near-term growth are limited by persistent payer constraints, Jefferies analysts warn. They tell clients in a note they are seeing an increase in prior authorization rejections in U.S. healthcare, which the Australian hearing-implant maker will have to contend with. Higher out-of-pocket costs could lead to delays in higher-priced procedures such as cochlear implants, they warn. The analysts also point to external analysis suggesting that insurers denied between 12% and 18% of U.S. standard prior authorization requests in 2025. They raise their target price 13% to 144.75 Australian dollars, but stay neutral on the stock. Shares are at A$141.20 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

2149 GMT - Australian advertised salaries grew in July at their fastest annual pace since February 2024, according to employment marketplace Seek. The ASX-listed classifieds group says salaries posted on its domestic platform were up 4.4% on a year earlier, led by a 6.4% jump in education and training positions. Seek says advertised salaries were 0.4% higher than a month earlier, up from the 0.3% growth seen in June and matching the monthly advance seen from January through April. The annual pace exceeds the 3.7% growth in take-home earnings recently seen in data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. However, the ABS data was for May. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

0958 GMT - BHP's full-year results underline new CEO Brandon Craig's promising start, head of markets at AJ Bell, Dan Coatsworth, writes. Copper has driven the miner's performance and has helped deliver a healthy increase in the dividend, he adds. The market will be watching BHP's M&A ambitions closely after Craig's predecessor, Mike Henry, attempted to merge with Anglo American, Coatsworth says. BHP's London shares rise 0.4% to 3,256 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

 

0454 GMT - National Australia Bank's recent share price rally and current trading multiples look hard to justify for its bears at Morgan Stanley. With an unchanged underweight rating on the stock, MS analysts point to the uncertain operating environment and the lender's weak earnings outlook. They believe that NAB's revenue growth is slowing and that it has limited flexibility on costs or capital. They suggest caution regarding NAB's credit quality in the current challenging macroeconomic environment, saying that it appears to be turning lower. MS has an unchanged target price of 34.00 Australian dollars on the stock. Shares are down 0.6% at A$39.21.

 

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