Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
08/28

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2141 ET - The Philippine peso's bias against the U.S. dollar has likely tilted higher, MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a research report. The senior currency analyst cites factors including expectations for oil prices to move lower and for the Philippine central bank to raise rates once more and stay somewhat hawkish. Also, the worst of El Nino effects may not materialize in rice prices in the Philippines, Wan adds. The dollar is 0.5% higher at 62.167 pesos, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2044 ET - Japanese stocks are higher following overnight gains in U.S. technology shares. Information-technology services providers are leading gains. Fujitsu Ltd. is up 4.2% and NEC Corp. is 3.8% higher. The dollar is at 159.33 yen, compared with Y159.35 as of Thursday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium due later Friday. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 0.4% at 66378.90. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

2019 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar ahead of Fed Chairman Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole later today. Warsh is unlikely to "discuss what the FOMC may decide at its next policy meeting in September given his strong aversion to forward guidance," CBA's Kristina Clifton says in a note. "Warsh will probably talk tough about reining in inflation," the senior economist and senior currency strategist says. "But there is a risk his comments are deemed not strong enough on tackling inflation, which pulls the USD down," Clifton adds. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 159.34 yen, but is 0.1% lower at 1,380.60 won, while the Australian dollar is steady at US$0.7195, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2014 ET - JGBs fall in Tokyo's morning session, tracking overnight price declines in U.S. Treasurys. JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. Investor focus could turn to the Japanese Finance Ministry's auction today of about 2.8 trillion yen of 2-year sovereign notes. "We expect a solid auction result based on substantial demand," SMBC Nikko Securities' Lisa Mochizuki says in a research report. The junior analyst cites factors such as solid outcomes at auctions in July 2025 and January 2026. The 10-year JGB yield is up 1.5 bps at 2.905%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1946 ET - Japanese stocks might decline as uncertainty over the Iran war continues. The market could also be weighed by caution ahead of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium due later Friday. Nikkei futures are down 0.2% at 66060 on the SGX. The dollar is at 159.34 yen, compared with Y159.35 as of Thursday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on any developments in the Middle East and crude oil prices. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.2% to 66131.98 on Thursday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)

1627 ET - The monetary-policy panel at the CD Howe Institute, a prominent Canada think tank, says the Bank of Canada should keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.25% for the next 12 months. Six of the nine economists leaned toward the BOC making no move for the next 12 months, citing the fresh uncertainty posed by what could be a prolonged U.S.-Canada trade conflict. The think tank says the economists leaning toward hikes in the next 12 months "relied on heroic assumptions" that the two countries would eventually return to talks and hammer out a mutually-agreeable pact. The panel says recent momentum in economic data means little with preferential access to the U.S. market -- which Canada has enjoyed for four decades -- now under threat. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1553 ET - Moving between jobs has gotten harder for U.S. workers, and new research by the Minneapolis Fed shows that non-compete agreements and employer concentration could be the culprit. States with larger increases in concentration also experienced larger declines in upward job mobility, according to the research. In addition, the growing use of non-compete agreements makes it harder for workers to leave for other opportunities, potentially weighing on wage growth. "Recognizing that workers are less likely to leave, employers are offering lower wages," the economists write. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1537 ET - Treasury yields rise ahead of Fed Chairman Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech. Investors will watch for clues about his plans to tame inflation and how the Treasury's bonds buyback program could impact long-term yields. Crude rises around 2% as the Hormuz standoff continues. An auction of $44 billion in seven-year Treasury notes clears at 4.512%, the highest yield since 2024, as investors fret about the economic outlook. The BLS releases preliminary employment revisions at 10 a.m. ET. The seven-year settles at 4.517%. The 10-year edges up 0.008 percentage point to 4.671%. The two-year also rises 0.008 p.p., to 4.230%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1417 ET - Gold futures edge up in a steady session with the market awaiting tomorrow's comments by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. "A balanced tone could support gold, while hawkish remarks may lift yields and pressure the metal," Konstantinos Chrysikos of Kudo.com says in a note. "Markets will also watch any shifts in geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices and inflation expectations." Front month gold settles up 0.25% at $4,609.70 a troy ounce. Silver rises 2.1% to $69.429 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1343 ET - Investors are ready to see what Chairman Kevin Warsh will say about how restrictive policy is, given inflation is above target on the eve of his Jackson Hole speech. Among the 31 respondents of a CNBC's Fed Survey, 80% say the Fed chairman should provide more insight into his economic views. Amid his dialed back communication approach, 45% expect he won't offer any guidance on the rate outlook at his speech. 32% think he'll be "somewhat hawkish."(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1306 ET - New listings rose 0.4% from a week earlier during the four weeks ending Aug. 23, Redfin says. That's their highest level since April. The total number of homes for sale rose 0.5% week over week, hitting their highest level since May. Pending home sales slipped 1.1% from a week earlier. Would-be buyers are sitting on the sidelines largely because housing costs are high. The median U.S. home-sale price rose 1.9% year over year to over $400,000, and the weekly average mortgage rate is 6.65%, down from a peak of 6.69% two weeks earlier. With inventory rising and demand declining, the homebuyers who are in the market could get a deal. Buyers may be able to negotiate prices down and/or get concessions.(chris.wack@wsj.com)

1229 ET - Canada has one distinct advantage over the U.S. in a potential dragged-out trade conflict, says Sébastien Mc Mahon, chief strategist at IA Global Asset Management. That is Canada's ability to borrow at a cheaper term relative to US. Mc Mahon says interest expenses in Canada account for 10% of government revenue, versus 28% in the U.S. The yield on a US 30-year bond sits at roughly 5.18%, versus Canada's 4.09% for 30 years. "Canada has real capacity to support its economy through the [trade] storm," says Mc Mahon. "Canada has ammunition to defend itself."

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