Bitcoin is Back. Buy at Your Own Risk

Dow Jones
08/28

Bitcoin is back-and what matters less than the news that got it there is the fact that there is news to begin with.

The cryptocurrency has surged 25% in the past two weeks to rise as high as $81,000. And suddenly the sentiment around Bitcoin has shifted, because nothing changes sentiment like price, and there may be nothing as sentiment driven as Bitcoin.

That's not to say there aren't fundamental drivers you could point to. Bitcoin's recent rally started on Aug. 19 after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to least double the size of bond repurchases. Then, later that day President Donald Trump hosted a group of crypto CEOs-"Tremendous investors, brilliant people"-and pushed Congress to pass the Clarity Act, which would establish a clearer regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.

How much do these drivers matter? Well, if the Clarity Act is passed, it might make Bitcoin more palatable to mainstream investors, providing a bit of a demand boost. And Bessent's rather transparent effort to talk down yields led to worries about the potential for dollar devaluation-sending the currency lower and boosting gold in addition to Bitcoin.

Rock-solid catalysts these are not, but after a long fallow period for Bitcoin, investors will take what they can get. The cryptocurrency is still down 10% this year and even after this rally, is still cheaper than it was at the end of 2024. "There have been massive, long liquidations, and sentiment gauges have been very, very low," says Josh Olszewicz, head of trading at digital asset manager Canary Capital.

But recent news events spiked prices, leading to short squeezes, leading to higher prices, leading to media attention, leading to investor interest, leading to higher prices still, in what he calls a "flywheel effect."

Olszewicz cautions that there are some signs that Bitcoin is topping out in the near-term, which lines up with seasonal trends; historically, Bitcoin hasn't tended to do well in September. But he adds that any September weakness could "lead to a really great fourth quarter," which lines up with his view that this could be the start of a more sustained "bullish trend."

Nick Colas of DataTrek Research is a bit more pessimistic. "My impression is that we'll need to see more headlines from Treasury about managing the yield curve for Bitcoin to keep rallying," he says.

That could certainly help-but so would any other news that keeps it in the headlines.

 

应版权方要求,你需要登录查看该内容

免责声明:投资有风险,本文并非投资建议,以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请,作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考,不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证,投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。

热议股票

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10