Waiting for Warsh. Stocks turned in a mixed performance to kick off the week, with jitters around a number of big-picture issues-artificial intelligence exposure, the latest uptick in a potential trade war with Canada, and the new plans to isolate Iran-weighing on momentum.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day up 140 points, or 0.3%. But the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 dipped 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively.

The Dow managed to squeeze out a win thanks to its smaller exposure to the tech sector, which was the worst performer in the S&P 500 on Monday. The sector has been down for seven consecutive days, its longest losing streak since September 2022.

Tech's recent slide hasn't stopped a solid August for investors, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set to snap two-month losing streaks. Stocks will need any momentum they can get heading into September, which is historically the worst month for returns for all three major indexes.

Before the month ends, investors will be watching Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday, followed by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

Investors are looking for details on Warsh's plan to bring inflation sustainably down to the Fed's 2% target, which the central bank has missed for over five years now.

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The Hot Stock: Expedia Group +5.4% The Biggest Loser: Seagate Technology Holdings -6.5%

Best Sector: Consumer Staples +1.8% Worst Sector: Technology -1.6%

Sanctions vs. Bonds

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled plans for a new wave of sanctions against Iran on Monday. What did we learn? Ultimately, not all that much.

In what he called "Operation Economic Outcast," Bessent outlined the broad outline of a strategy aimed to "sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone."

However, the plans provided little detail, and the markets didn't react favorably.

My colleague Sabrina Escobar covered the latest announcement:

The campaign imposes new sanctions on five sectors Bessent said were Iran's most vital lifelines, including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. Treasury is also sanctioning more than 60 entities, individuals, and vessels that allow Iran to procure nuclear and missile technology, conduct cyber operations, and generate oil revenue, according to Bessent.

President Donald Trump is also reportedly making calls to other world leaders to cut economic ties with Iran.

The latest move "ups the ante" on Iran and could widen the divide between factions in the country, writes David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist for Capital Economics. "But with the renewed U.S. naval blockade already strangling Iran's oil exports, the direct impact of 'economic D-Day' on Iran's energy revenues will be somewhat of a damp squib," Oxley noted.

The limited direct impact is due, in large part, to the fact that the vast majority of Iranian oil exports go to China. So far, China hasn't recognized U.S. sanctions and Oxley says it's unlikely the country will be willing to do so this time, either.

Barron's Karishma Vanjani pointed out that while Bessent was looking to keep today's press conference focused on Iran, questions on the bond market kept coming up and there was no satisfying answer:

When asked whether there is a possibility of more bond buybacks anytime soon, Bessent said "we haven't bought a single bond yet. The next time we have an operation is September 9th, so we will see on September 9th."

The Calendar

S&P Cotality releases its Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for June tomorrow. Economists forecast a month over month decline of around 0.1%, following a modest 0.15% increase in May.

The Census Bureau reports new-home sales for July. The consensus call is for a seasonally-adjusted tally of 630,000, around 2,000 higher than the June reading.

The Conference Board releases its monthly consumer sentiment reading for August. Economists forecast a reading of 90.2, down modestly from the 90.8 tally estimated for July.

What We're Reading Today

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How Micron Can Fight Off Another China Threat

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