The price of wheat has surged 18% this month as the Russia-Ukraine war disrupts exports from the Black Sea region, while unfavorable global weather conditions also threaten supplies.

Most-active Chicago wheat futures settled yesterday at their highest level since July 2023. They ticked up to $7.52 a bushel this morning, putting them on track for another three-year high.

In recent weeks, Ukraine has battered Russian grain-export terminals with drone and missile strikes, while Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukrainian export infrastructure, targeting ports, grain silos and cargo ships. Russia and Ukraine typically account for nearly a third of global wheat exports.

"There is a real sense that what's happening between Russia and Ukraine is getting worse, not better," said Dave Whitcomb, founder of Peak Trading Research in Geneva.

Extreme heat and drought in Europe and an emerging El Niño event have also fueled rising prices. The intermittent weather pattern known as El Niño, marked by warmer ocean temperatures, tends to reduce wheat yields in Australia and parts of Asia.