J.M. Smucker (SJM) could overdeliver relative to expectations in fiscal Q1, driven by strong coffee and Uncrustables demand, possible upside from tariff refunds, and no coffee price cuts, RBC Capital Markets said in a note Monday.

The company is scheduled to deliver first-quarter fiscal 2027 results Wednesday.

The analysts said Circana data show 4% year-over-year growth in consumption trends, well above consensus expectations for 0.6% organic sales growth, suggesting upside to estimates.

Coffee is up about 10%, while Frozen Handhelds and Spreads rose 4.8%, driven by strong Uncrustables growth.

The analysts said channel checks suggest J.M. Smucker has decided not to cut coffee prices due to uncertainty and volatility in the green coffee market.

Instead, the company is expected to invest in trade promotions, which give it more flexibility than changing list prices.

"On the bottom line, we believe this will have a neutral to slightly positive impact, depending on the level of promotions that the company decides to run," the analysts added.

RBC has an Outperform rating and a $135 price target on J.M. Smucker.

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