3 Reasons not to Freak Out About 7% Mortgage Rates

Dow Jones
09/04

Mortgage rates are the closest they've been to 7% in over a year after bond yields surged this week.

Mortgage News Daily's survey pegged the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.91% on Wednesday-though buyers may see slightly lower rates today due to a move lower in the 10-year Treasury yield.

Freddie Mac's weekly survey of 30-year mortgage rates rose to 6.71% this week, up from 6.66% one week prior, according to Thursday data. It's the highest such rate since late July 2025.

A gain in mortgage rates at any time isn't ideal for buyers. The borrower of a $400,000 loan at this week's 30-year fixed mortgage rate would owe nearly $200 more a month than if they had locked in financing in February at this year's 5.98% low.

That said, circumstances surrounding the recent gain in rates are, perhaps, less dire than they could have been. While housing stocks will continue to ebb and flow with fluctuations in the 10-year Treasury yield-an important determinant of mortgage pricing-there are a few reasons why buyers shouldn't worry just yet.

Home Buying Is Out of Season

This week's rise in rates isn't hitting at a busy time. Because of housing market seasonality, a gain in rates as the summer turns to fall packs less of a punch than in late winter or early spring. Closings typically ease heading into the fall, trough during the winter, and start to pick up again in March.

And buyer enthusiasm can't dampen much more in an already dull market. Existing-home sales nationally have totaled less than five million for the past three years, according to the National Association of Realtors, a pattern it looks unlikely to break this year: As of July, sales year to date were pacing just 2.4% ahead of last year.

Spring Is a Long Ways Away

Buyers tend to begin to think about making a purchase after the holidays, in January or February. If that feels early, consider that investors typically beat them to the punch: home builder stocks tend to perform well beginning in November through January on high hopes for the coming spring season.

Of particular importance will be the 10-year Treausry yield, which just after midday on Thursday was at 4.746%, down from 4.793% the day before. "We believe housing and rates are at a very important moment," Stephens analysts Jeff Lick and Thomas Wendler wrote in a Thursday note. "The line of demarcation is simple. The U.S. 10-year treasury rate breaking and staying above 4.8% would be extremely negative for housing."

While concerns about rising government debt are unlikely to vanish, there are other potential catalysts for mortgage rates before the end of the year. Three Federal Open Market Committee meetings and four Consumer Price Index readings are scheduled-not to mention news that may come about the war in Iran.

The Price Is Still Right for Some Buyers

A rise in mortgage rates cuts down on the pool of buyers who can afford to finance a home purchase. But some are still inking contracts.

"While affordability remains a challenge, the increased supply in many local markets is helping support homebuying activity," Bob Broeksmit, the president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a Thursday statement.

Demand for luxury homes tells some of the story. For buyers with money to spend from stock market gains and the ability to pay cash, the housing market slowdown could mean more bargaining power.

The same is true for those hunting in areas with more new-home construction. Of the metros measured by Redfin, median sale prices are notably lower than year-ago levels in home-construction hot spots such as Austin and Fort Worth, Tex.

 

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