Summer is nearly over as we lean into a fresh month and Labor Day is less than a week away. Market risks are piling up and stocks could be headed for a Fall.

The S&P 500 just locked in its best August in half a decade, but this month could be a lot choppier. Since 1928, the benchmark index has declined 1.1% on average in September, per Dow Jones Market Data.

Rising bond yields could mean history repeats itself. The 10-Year Treasury yield hit its highest level of President Donald Trump's second term on Monday and ticked up another 4 basis points to 4.79% early Tuesday.

The problem is the government won't deal with that issue anytime soon. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at a G-20 meeting on Monday that a fiscal consolidation package could be weeks or even months away, dashing hopes of an immediate plan to tackle the deficit.

The flare-up in fighting in the Middle East is adding to the market's inflation woes. Two oil supertankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing risk management company Marisks.

If the Trump administration isn't going to deal with yields, that leaves a lot riding on two looming events-consumer price index inflation data on Sept. 11, and the Federal Reserve meeting five days later.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said that the central bank was ready to act to curb inflation, but now the market needs him to back up that tough talk.

If the inflation reading comes in hotter-than-expected or the Fed fails to deliver an interest-rate hike, then the writing is on the wall for another September slump.