Investors have already gotten a taste of what rising fuel costs can do to airline and cruise line stocks. The drops in trucking and transportation stocks over the last several months show the impact of those costs is spreading.

U.S. diesel prices have surged 62% this year and the national average hit $5.78 a gallon on Thursday, pushing up against the record high of $5.82 set on June 19, 2022, according to OPIS.

The rise in prices can be traced at least in part to the loss of refining capacity from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian facilities and ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.

Andrew Addison, a technical analyst at the Institutional Review, wrote Wednesday that the daily national average diesel gasoline price is on the verge of "powering out" of an 18-year base and, if prices end the week above $5.85 a gallon, projections could show diesel prices heading north of $8 a gallon.

In a shipping economy that runs on diesel, that's anything but good news for trucking stocks like J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Old Dominion Freight Line, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Saia, XPO, and TFI International.

Many trucking and transportation companies use fuel surcharges to pass expenses on to customers. But rising diesel prices could affect operating costs and also sap some demand if customers choose to forgo transportation services if prices get out of hand.

J.B. Hunt stock has risen 36% this year, but since closing at $298.41 on July 16, shares have declined 11% and retreated below their 50-day moving average around the $276 price level. The stock is also on pace to log a third consecutive monthly decline in September.

Similarly, Old Dominion Freight Line stock has gained 17% this year but has already declined 8.3% in September and was on pace to close lower for a fourth consecutive month. Knight-Swift Transportation stock also closed below its 50-day moving average on July 23 and has traded lower since then.

Shares of the transport and logistics company XPO closed below their 200-day moving average, at the $188 level, on Tuesday. Saia stock has also dropped below both key moving averages in recent weeks and TFI International stock is in a downtrend since it hit an intraday high of $167.69 on June 9.

Looking more broadly at the Dow Jones Transportation Average, the index has performed well over the past 12 months, rising 31%. The index, however, was down about 14% on Thursday from its record closing high on April 21, 2026. For comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has advanced 17% over the past 12 months and was 1.5% below its record closing level from Aug. 5.

Addison noted that the Dow Jones Transportation Average "never confirmed the new high" from the Dow Jones Industrial Average and that the index might be in trouble moving forward.