Health Care Roundup: Market Talk

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The latest Market Talks covering the Health Care sector. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0815 GMT - Novartis's decision to suspend several clinical trials for a cell therapy after three patients died is expected to have a limited financial impact, Citi analysts say in a research note. Pending further updates, the news reduces the likelihood that the Swiss drugmaker's next-generation cell-therapy platform--which aims to accelerate the process of T-cell expansion to treat autoimmune diseases--could provide a future boost, the analysts say. However, the treatment was still in midstage trials, and Citi's current peak sales estimate stands at only $440 million. Novartis shares fall 0.6%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0229 GMT - CSL's bulls at UBS don't think the Australia-based pharmaceutical company will experience much of a direct financial impact from its U.S. pricing agreements. CSL has agreed to give Medicaid access to medicines at prices comparable to those in other developed economies, but the investment bank's analysts point out that the state-based program accounts for a relatively small part of its U.S. sales. On top of that, they don't see obligations around the pricing of future drug launches as onerous, given that CSL will be in control of settings and able to manage the impact in its best interests. UBS has a last-published buy rating on the stock and a target price of 181.00 Australian dollars. Shares are up 0.5% at A$173.12. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0208 GMT - The Delhi High Court's appointment of a forensic auditor to trace alleged asset dissipation linked to former Fortis promoters Malvinder Singh and Shivinder Singh is likely to have minimal impact on IHH Healthcare, says CIMB Securities analyst Chun Sung Oong in a note. However, the development could prolong legal proceedings and delay IHH's mandatory takeover offer for an additional 26% of Fortis Healthcare, he says. Fortis shareholders acceptance is also likely to remain limited as Fortis is trading well above the original INR170/share offer price, he reckons. IHH could explore alternative routes to raise its effective Fortis stake, including a potential share swap involving Gleneagles India, he says. CIMB has a buy rating and 10.30 ringgit target price on IHGH, which is down 0.5% at 8.11 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

1435 GMT - Investors were cautious on Novartis's clinical trials of an experimental therapy targeting autoimmune and neurological disorders that the Swiss drugmaker decided to pause after three patients died, UBS analysts say in a research note. The therapy, known as rap-cel or YTB323, is a cell therapy called CAR-T that works by removing a patients' own immune cells, engineering them in a lab and infusing them back into the body. "While YTB was seen as an important potential programme from treatment [of] refractory immunology indications, we and investors were cautious about the high-risk nature of using CART in immunology," UBS says. Novartis shares rise 5.9%, lifted by positive results from separate studies on a multiple sclerosis drug. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

1427 GMT - Novartis's latest trial results for a multiple sclerosis drug suggest a multibillion-dollar sales opportunity is within the Swiss drugmaker's reach, analysts at J.P. Morgan say in a research note. The results for Novartis's Rhapsido reduce risk on a sales opportunity of at least $2 billion to $3 billion in relapsing multiple sclerosis alone, according to JPM. Given that consensus forecasts for 2030 sales from the drug currently stand at $3.4 billion, mainly from skin conditions, consensus estimates could see significant upgrades after the results, the analysts say. That said, detailed data are required to assess the drug's potential relative to Roche's fenebrutinib and so-called anti-CD20 therapies, a different class of medicines, they add. Novartis shares jump 6.3%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

1414 GMT - Novartis's trial results for a multiple sclerosis drug are in line with a blue-sky scenario, UBS analysts say in a research note. The Swiss drugmaker's results from two late-stage studies point to a greater reduction in annualized relapse rates with its Rhapsido compared to Sanofi's Aubagio, with no liver safety issues, the analysts say. These results suggest Novartis's drug might be at least a best-in-class oral medicine for the disease, according to UBS. UBS estimates that there's a 50% probability the drug's sales for relapsing multiple sclerosis reach $4.5 billion. Novartis shares jump 6.2%.

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