August Jobs Report Removes an Obstacle to a Fed Hike

Dow Jones
昨天

Federal Reserve officials had made clear in the run-up to their Sept. 15-16 meeting that inflation data, more than anything else, would help them decide whether or not to raise rates after having held them steady this year. Even if the strong August employment report does not change that calculus, it does remove an objection to raising rates.

Had August been weak on top of a negative July print, there might have been a better argument against tightening: Why raise rates into a labor market that's not showing any strength? That argument isn't available after Friday's employment report flipped July's negative reading to positive and pushed six-month average hiring growth to the highest level in more than two years.

Removing an objection to a hike isn't the same as building the case for one. Fed officials don't see the labor market as a source of inflationary pressure. Wage growth has been moderate, and they don't believe they need to slow hiring to bring prices down.

Still, steady job and income growth matters as another sign that interest rates may not be restraining the economy much if at all. Fed governor Christopher Waller said Thursday that a healthy labor market won't be a large factor in his rate decision, but it does provide a backdrop for thinking about whether policy is doing enough to bring inflation down. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said last week he would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.

A labor market still adding jobs also lowers the cost of acting: If August inflation reports-due at the end of next week-nudge officials toward raising rates this month, they can do it with less fear of tipping a fragile job market over the edge. That leaves next week's inflation data in the driver's seat as the variable that decides this.

应版权方要求,你需要登录查看该内容

免责声明:投资有风险,本文并非投资建议,以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请,作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考,不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证,投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。

热议股票

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10