Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
09/08

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0253 GMT - Palm oil rises in early Asian trading, driven by gains in soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ongoing concerns over near-term production amid dry weather is also pushing crude palm oil prices higher, he adds. Ng expects palm oil prices to face resistance at 5,080 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,900 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery is up 26 ringgit at 5,004 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0226 GMT - Iron ore prices are higher in early Asia trade. Near-term demand is expected to improve as steel mills restock ahead of the holiday, says Baocheng Futures analysts in a note. Steel production is stabilizing and ore consumption is ticking up, while weak mill margins limit the strength of the recovery in demand, they say. Chinese port arrivals are rebounding sharply, while miner shipments ease, but both remain relatively high for the year, keeping overall supply ample, they say. The market is likely to remain supported in the near-term by restocking before the holiday, they add. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.5% higher at CNY738.0 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0220 GMT - Citi is bullish on metals heading into year-end, especially gold and silver. It expects metals prices will be "relatively resilient to rising energy price scenarios from here (more so gold and silver than copper and aluminum, explaining our relative preference)." Yet industrial metals prices are supported by structurally bullish themes, such as the growth in artificial intelligence and military spending, the bank says. Citi is also bullish on metals should the Strait of Hormuz reopen, which could be "a catalyst for more explosive upside," it says. Spot gold is up 0.5% at $4,427.35 an ounce. LME 3-month copper is up 0.6% at $14,593/metric ton. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0159 GMT - Copper prices are higher in early Asian trading. Prices are supported by strong fundamentals and tightening inventories, ANZ research analysts say, adding that "Ongoing supply-side issues have been mounting in recent months." Chile, the world's largest copper producer, saw shipments sink to their lowest level in more than a year in August, they note. The three-month LME copper contract is 0.6% higher at $14,604.50 a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0135 GMT - No matter where you look in the gold market, the bulls appear to be in charge. "Across positioning, flow, and derivatives data, every signal we track continues to point in the same direction: the market is bullish on gold across all fronts," says Societe Generale. What began as a geopolitical shock has evolved into a broad-based build-up of physical, futures and options bets that span retail investors, professional money managers and derivatives traders, it says. "We are now awaiting August central bank data to confirm whether official-sector demand, a key structural pillar of this bull market, remains as robust as in prior months," says SocGen. Any acceleration or slowdown in central-bank buying could help show how durable the bull run might be, it says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0101 GMT - Investor feedback suggests iron-ore prices have been resilient, says Morgan Stanley. But it doesn't necessarily agree. "Headline CFR [cost and freight] iron-ore prices are being supported by higher freight, giving an impression of higher netback prices for the iron ore miners, which are in fact significantly lower" on-year, MS says. Fortescue and Mineral Resources are most impacted when factoring in current iron-ore prices and freight rates, it says. MS isn't upbeat on the outlook for iron-ore prices, either. "We expect iron ore to weaken into 2H, and see little reason for the market to be excited about iron ore at present," it says. MS forecasts benchmark iron ore at $92/metric ton in 4Q. The spot price is $100.05/ton, according to S&P Global Energy. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0025 GMT - Gold rises in early Asian trade, as investors look to U.S. inflation data due Friday. The CPI print will be critical in determining whether the Fed will tighten its policy next week, with persistent price pressures likely remaining a near-term headwind for gold, says MUFG Bank's Soojin Kim in a report. Higher rates typically diminish the allure of the non-interest-bearing precious metal. Spot gold is 0.5% higher at $4,427.15 a troy ounce.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

1431 GMT - Oil prices extend earlier gains, with Brent crude marching toward $100 a barrel as fresh exchanges of strikes between the U.S. and Iran keep the geopolitical risk premium high. The global oil benchmark is up 1.3% to $97.56 a barrel, while WTI futures rise 1.4% to $92.72 a barrel. "A sustained disruption to actual crude flows could quickly push prices above $100 a barrel," analysts at brokerage firm Kotak Securities. "Tightening inventories and stronger refined-product prices add support." In the U.S., Labor Day weekend travelers are facing the highest gas prices ever for this time of year. According to AAA, the national average price at the pump was $4.15 on Monday, a record high for the holiday. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1419 GMT - Gold prices remain under pressure, with New York futures down 0.5% to $4,452.70 a troy ounce. "While increased haven demand may be one of the major supporting factors, it is the steady climb in bond yields and rising interest rate expectations which make the near-term gold forecast challenging, as zero yielding assets become less attractive in this environment," says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com. With the U.S. Labor Day holiday delaying this week's key data releases, investors now await the PPI report on Thursday and CPI data on Friday. "Should inflation come in hotter than anticipated, markets will cement expectations for a September rate hike, which could exert renewed pressure on the near-term gold forecast," Razaqzada says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1016 GMT - Palm oil strengthened, with the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery rising by 50 ringgit to 4,979 ringgit a ton. Prices were likely supported by persistent concerns about outlook over El Nino-related hot and dry weather conditions that could affect yields and future production, Kenanga Futures writes in a note. Investors remain watchful of August industry data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board due later this week, it adds. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0842 GMT - BHP continues to monitor the uranium market, but needs it to be at least three times the size to potentially become a pillar of the giant miner's portfolio, says Citi. "Uranium is only a $10 billion market currently and needs to be a circa $30 billion market in 2-3 decades to be one of BHP's pillars," it says. The bank's remarks follow recent meetings with BHP management. Discussions centered on the company's organic growth pipeline in copper, which appears to preclude near-term, large-scale M&A, says Citi. "Regarding copper, the buy vs build decision is heavily stacked in favor of organic growth (difficult to justify acquiring copper companies at over $80,000/ton of production when BHP is developing assets at $20,000-30,000/ton of production), according to the company," Citi says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0800 GMT - Copper prices rise in early European trading despite growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month, weighing on the demand outlook for metals. Three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange are up 0.4% to $14,439 a metric ton, supported by continued supply concerns. Global copper output fell in the first half of the year and major producers such as Codelco and Freeport reporting sharp declines, ANZ analysts say, citing data from the International Copper Study Group. Chile has been a key drag, with production hitting its lowest second-quarter level in at least 19 years and the country cutting its annual output forecast for a second consecutive quarter. Meanwhile, concerns over potential U.S. import tariffs are drawing more copper toward the U.S., further tightening supply elsewhere.

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