Why the Launch of OpenAI's Latest Astra Model Reignited the Memory Chip Trade

Dow Jones
4小时前

OpenAI's newest product reassures analysts that demand for cutting-edge memory chips will remain

Enthusiasm for the latest ChatGPT-6 Astra model lit a fire underneath memory chip makers

The launch of OpenAI's newest model ChatGPT-6 Astra revitalized investor interest in the memory chip sector on Friday, and that boost received by semiconductor stocks in the U.S. spilled over into Asian trade at the start of the week.

Emphatic gains were chalked up Monday by some of the sector's favorite names for trading: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in South Korea and Kioxia in Japan.

OpenAI's latest model was launched in two parts last Thursday and Friday with its president Greg Brockman describing its release as "the world's most intelligent and aligned model" and its positive reception has been interpreted as encouraging news for memory chip manufacturers.

Astra is designed to process more complex tasks and the share prices of memory chip manufacturers reacted to optimism that it will reinforce demand for high-bandwidth memory, dynamic random access memory and graphics processing units.

In recent months the debate on semiconductor stocks has centered around how long they can maintain their stunning growth profile and retain their high margins, and the OpenAI release seems to once again be reassuring investors the so-called semiconductor supercycle can persist.

On Friday, Nomura's CW Chung reiterated his bullish price targets of Korean Won 670,000 and KRW 4,700,000 for Samsung (KR:005930) and SK Hynix (KR:000660) respectively, offering significant upside from their present levels of KRW 270,000 and KRW 1,783,000.

A note published Monday by Saxo Bank's chief investment strategist Charu Channa outlined her belief that the Astra launch "supports continued AI spending" and that frontier AI models remain extremely compute-intensive and the memory and network bottlenecks continue to broaden. These conditions are highly favorable to SK Hynix and Samsung. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley estimate that of the expected $1.3-1.5 trillion of AI capex planned in 2027, more than half of that will be devoted to memory.

The surge in the sector began Friday with outsized gains recorded by the likes of Micron Technology (MU), Sandisk (SNDK) and the Nasdaq-listed depositary receipts of SK Hynix (SKHY), while the broad iShares Semiconductor Index exchange-traded fund SOXX jumped 3.5%, taking its return for the year to 72%, despite the correction of 30% or so in July.

In Asian trading Monday, SK Hynix ordinary shares spiked 8% and Samsung Electronics more than 5%. An even bigger increase was noted by fellow semiconductor play DB HiTek (KR:000990) whose shares leapt 12%. Japan's premier semiconductor play, Kioxia Holdings (JP:285A) , added 10%.

Korea's Kospi index KR:180721 is viewed as the bellwether for sentiment in the AI 'picks 'n shovels trade' and since its recent trough of 5,593 on July 29, it has recouped around 25% to the cusp of 7,000.

In his weekly Korean 'kickstart' note for investors, Goldman Sachs chief Asian equity strategist Tim Moe reiterated his bullish 12,000 year-end target for the index, pointing out that earnings forecasts for the market are still rising (+3.2% this week). Moe also highlighted that the foreign ownership of the Korean semiconductor sector is far below its historical average.

Amid significant foreign outflows, foreign ownership in the KOSPI semiconductor sector has fallen to more than two standard deviations below its historical average

Korea's growing macro-economic strength is starting to be reflected in the Korean won also. It has strengthened about 12% in the last three months and it's now 6% higher against the dollar over the course of 2026. The Bank of Korea raising interest rates is one factor behind the rally but exports are also shooting higher.

Korean exports (and earnings estimates) have risen sharply in 2026

Meanwhile, the Tessera pre-IPO tokens trading on the Hyperliquid exchange were 2% lower, implying a market capitalization of $880 billion, having rallied sharply Friday. The tokens, sponsored by venture capitalist firm Tessera, represent ownership in a special purpose vehicle holding shares in OpenAI and are designed to provide investors with the same return as the stock as soon as it's listed.

-Jules Rimmer

 

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