TradingKey - On September 10, Eastern Time, Reuters reported, citing two people familiar with the matter, that the White House has not yet made a final decision on whether to impose import tariffs on refined copper. The administration is weighing the potential of tariffs to push up U.S. manufacturing costs against their potential support for domestic mining, smelting, and refining projects.

A White House official confirmed that the U.S. Department of Commerce submitted an updated assessment of the copper market to Trump before the June 30 deadline set by the White House. The official said the administration is still evaluating different options to promote the reshoring of copper and other key manufacturing to the U.S. This means that market expectations of an imminent implementation of refined copper tariffs have not yet been confirmed.

Following the news, copper prices pulled back significantly. As of press time, COMEX October copper futures fell over 4% intraday to around $6.585 per pound; copper mining stock Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) fell over 8% in pre-market trading. The market mainly attributed this pullback to the repricing of refined copper tariff expectations.

[Source: TradingView]

Tariff Expectations Drive Copper Inflows to US

Effective August 1, 2025, the U.S. imposed a 50% import tariff on certain semi-finished copper products, including copper pipes and wires, while refined copper was excluded for now. Trump had previously requested the Commerce Secretary to update the copper market status by June 30 and provide recommendations on whether to levy a 15% tariff on refined copper starting in 2027, increasing it to 30% in 2028. Currently, the specific details of the recommendations submitted by the Department of Commerce have not been made public.

During the period of policy uncertainty, traders and industrial buyers continued to ship copper to the U.S. In July 2026, total U.S. imports of refined copper and copper alloys reached 225,094 metric tons, setting a new single-month high since 1990.

As of early September, COMEX copper inventories stood at approximately 694,000 metric tons, accounting for about 70% of total visible inventories across the three major exchanges: the LME, COMEX, and SHFE. Meanwhile, SHFE copper inventories totaled around 63,000 metric tons, remaining at a low level since January 2024; a high proportion of LME canceled warrants indicates that some copper may be flowing out of exchange warehouses.

Prices Remain Influenced by Supply and Demand Factors

Tariff expectations have driven a concentrated influx of copper into the United States and reduced available inventories in other markets, but this is not the sole reason for the recent rally in copper prices. Mine supply disruptions, declining global copper mine output, and expectations of demand growth from power grids, data centers, and electric vehicles are also providing support for copper prices.

The White House's final decision will impact U.S. import demand and global inventory distribution. If tariffs are ultimately not levied on refined copper, some of the copper that previously flowed into the U.S. may flow back to other markets; if the tariffs are implemented, regional price spreads and trade flows may remain divergent.

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