After encouraging his supporters to "pretend" his name appeared on midterm ballots last month, President Trump appeared in person to deliver the keynote address at the Republican midterm convention. He is the key to both Democratic and Republican strategies.

Democrats believe that opposition to the polarizing president will accelerate historic trends that favor the party not holding the White House just as they did in 2018. In those midterms, during Trump's first term, Democrats netted 40 House seats to regain their majority in the lower chamber. Republicans conversely hope, despite historically low poll numbers and a historically unpopular war with Iran, that Trump can turnout a MAGA base to maintain their House majority and defy history.