SpaceX launches a classified payload for the U.S. Space Force later today, its 104th Falcon 9 launch of the year, and 106th flight including its Starship test flights.

The mission is a reminder of the company's space dominance, even as other companies come to challenge Elon Musk's rocket and AI company.

Today's launch takes off from Vandenberg Space Force base in California and is slated for around noon Eastern time. Exactly what the rocket is carrying is, well, classified, but it could be Starshield communications satellites. Starshield is a little like Starlink, SpaceX's space-based broadband product, but Starshield is for military communications.

SpaceX is actually a little behind its 2025 launch pace. It launched Falcon 9 rockets 165 times, accounting for more than half of global space launches. Falcon 9's market share is down to about 49% in 2026. Start-ups are looking to capitalize on SpaceX's opening up of the commercial space market. A recent example is Isar Aerospace, which launched its Spectrum rocket from Norway this past week. It was the first time a private European company reached orbit from continental Europe.

Not all rockets, however, are the same size. SpaceX still carries far more than 50% of the mass put into orbit. At this point, market share doesn't really matter. There is more demand to put things in space than rockets to carry the payload. For now, space companies just need to build capacity.

Much of that demand, of course, comes from SpaceX itself as it builds out Starlink, Starshield, and eventually Starmind, its AI computing satellite constellation.

SpaceX stock was down 0.3% in premarket trading Thursday at $147.55, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

SpaceX stock fell 3.9% on Wednesday. Shares are still being impacted, to some extent, by expiring post-IPO lockups on shares held by early investors and insiders. More stock becomes available to trade over the coming months, bringing the possibility that early investors sell to realize profits. Currently, about 2.6 billion SpaceX shares, out of more than 13 billion, are available to trade. Some 2.3 billion additional shares will become available to trade by the end of 2026.