Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
3小时前

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1600 ET - Lean hog futures post back-to-back losses, with the October contract settling 2.4% lower on CME at 79.6 cents a pound. Most-active cattle futures extend gains to a third session, supported by lower slaughter, settling up 1.3% at $2.2510 a pound. Both choice and select boxed beef prices were higher in the USDA's morning report, and pork cutouts were broadly higher with only bellies declining. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1552 ET - Oil futures settle higher as Saudi Arabia's pipeline outage and Houthi advances in Yemen keep the market's concerns about supply disruptions intact. Prices fell back from early highs, led by diesel, after President Trump said Ukraine and Russia agreed to stop attacks on each other's energy facilities. But "neither country has independently said they are held to the deal," Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. And "as far as I know, there is no dialogue between the U.S. and Iran," he adds. WTI settles up 1.3% at $101.39 a barrel and Brent rises 1% to $105.68. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1528 ET - U.S. natural gas futures settle higher as weekend weather forecasts added heat to the near-term outlook, favoring power-sector demand. Temperatures are still expected to fall in the second half of September, "setting up a broader shoulder-season decline in consumption," Gelber & Associates says in a note. But meanwhile reduced Canadian imports and LNG demand near 20 Bcf/d tighten the balance enough to lift October futures despite solid production, the firm adds. Nymex natural gas settles up 2.3% at $2.896/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1357 ET - Gold futures end the session off their intraday lows as oil prices ease from highs and Treasury yields pull back after the 10-year touched 5% for the first time in three years. Gold traders are mostly focusing on this week's Fed meeting as expectations of an interest-rate hike increased following the latest payrolls and inflation data. The question for gold is whether safe-haven demand can outweigh the pressure from higher yields, GivTrade technical analyst Waleed Said says in a note. "Geopolitical uncertainty is providing structural support, while sticky inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates are preventing the safe-haven trade from translating automatically into higher gold prices." Front month gold settles down 1.3% in New York at $4,310 a troy ounce. Silver falls 1.6% to $63.513 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1243 ET - Wheat futures turn lower after President Trump said on Truth Social that Ukraine and Russia agreed to stop strikes on each other's energy targets. Attacks on energy infrastructure have contributed to multiyear highs for diesel prices, while strikes on shipping in the Black Sea did the same for wheat. "Managed money length appears to be interpreting this renewed pressure from the U.S. as potentially leading to de-escalation regarding commodity flow through the Black Sea, but only time will tell if this actually translates to an improvement on the ground instead of just a headline," Mike Castle of StoneX says in a note. Wheat is down 0.6% on CBOT.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1213 ET - Diesel futures pull back from early highs as President Trump says Ukraine and Russia have agreed to stop attacks on each other's energy infrastructure. Ukrainian drone strikes that have knocked out Russian refining capacity have contributed to global diesel shortages while U.S. exports have been at record highs. "Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian energy targets. Russia has agreed to do likewise!" Trump posted on Truth Social. He adds that the rise in diesel prices is mostly due to the Russia-Ukraine war, and not Iran. Nymex diesel futures are up 0.4% at $4.9771 a gallon. Gasoil futures on ICE Futures Europe are down 1.2% at $1,462 a metric ton. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1129 ET - Livestock futures are mixed with cattle adding to last week's gains and hogs extending their slide. Last week's cattle slaughter fell by 21,000 head but was more than 11,000 above the 2025 Labor Holiday week, AgResource says in a note. And while last week's boxed beef prices were slightly lower, both choice and select values remain well above late-July lows, the firm adds. "September is typically a slow month for the beef market, with seasonal demand developing in October." Live cattle rise 0.3% on CME. Lean hogs are off 2%. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1048 ET - Soybeans are picking up after Friday's selloff on the USDA's bigger harvest estimate. While ending stocks are comfortable, "what happens if China would buy more beans from the U.S.? Or what would happen if South America has a little weather issue to cause them to have a smaller crop this year?" Cory Bratland of AgMarket.net says in a note. With funds holding a record long position and harvest starting, prices could consolidate, "but keep a close eye on the weather in South America and also, keep a close eye on the meeting between President Trump and President Xi on Sept. 24," he adds. CBOT soybeans are up 1%. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1022 ET - Grains are starting the week with moderate gains following losses in the wake of Friday's WASDE report. Corn futures held up "pretty well" as the USDA showed larger-than-expected production and ending stocks for the U.S. and globally, Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives says in a note. "There is a near-record speculative long position in the market with U.S. harvest ramping up in the coming weeks to provide headwinds," he says. "With supplies not quite as tight as we thought, corn could see a healthy correction in the near-term." CBOT corn is up 0.2%, soybeans rise 0.2% and wheat is 0.6% higher. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0931 ET - The sharp rise in crude oil prices this month casts a cloud over Canada's inflation report for August. Total inflation in August hit 3%, or unchanged from the prior month, and core-CPI readings were also unchanged. Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Capital Markets, says BOC officials "won't take much comfort" from this data because crude oil is trading above $100 a barrel. "Persistently elevated energy prices are likely to be passed through more clearly to consumers in the coming months," Mendes says. He reckons BOC officials could be "forced into action" unless crude-oil prices retreat. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0924 ET - U.S. natural gas futures gain ground as weekend weather forecasts showed summer heat lasting a little longer. "Near-term weather-driven gas demand is strong, with further backing from robust LNG," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. But production remains prolific, keeping winter futures prices subdued, he adds. "Winter contract weakness halted near-term upside early in September and, unless prices move higher, may continue to impede the extent of near-term Nymex upside potential." The Nymex front month is up 1.3% at $2.868/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0903 ET - Treasury yields rise, hovering near multi-year highs, amid expectations the Fed may raise interest rates Wednesday. The conflict in the Middle East pushes oil prices up by nearly 5%, stoking inflation fears. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.5%, as the greenback strengthens 0.9% against the yen and 0.6% versus the euro. The 10-year yield is at 4.985% and could breach 5% for the first time since 2023, on an intraday basis. The benchmark hasn't closed above 5% since 2007. The two-year is at 4.641%, receding after reaching its highest level since July 2024.

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