比尔·盖茨谈AI：2026年下半年AI可能严重威胁人类，应对风险是“全球头等大事”

第一财经

09/15

2026.09．15 　　本文字数：2633，阅读时长大约4分钟　　作者 | 第一财经钱小岩　　封图 | 2026年2月盖茨在上海接受第一财经记者专访　　比尔·盖茨“变了”。在2026年以前，盖茨一直是人工智能（AI）发展的有力支持者和技术乐观派，虽然也忧虑AI带来的就业和虚假信息的风险，但他认为风险基本可控，并且没有任何一次变革能与AI相提并论；他坚信，AI将有助于解决医疗资源分配...

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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; 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href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-09-15/doc-inirwscy6980268.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1551013425.SGD","symbol_name":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-09-15/doc-inirwscy6980268.shtml","article_id":"2667861652","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-09-15/doc-inirwscy6980268.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, .art_cite{#sourceStyle#;} .art_cite{margin-left: 3px;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, 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| 第一财经 钱小岩\n　　封图 | 2026年2月盖茨在上海接受第一财经记者专访 \n　　比尔·盖茨“变了”。在2026年以前，盖茨一直是人工智能（AI）发展的有力支持者和技术乐观派，虽然也忧虑AI带来的就业和虚假信息的风险，但他认为风险基本可控，并且没有任何一次变革能与AI相提并论；他坚信，AI将有助于解决医疗资源分配不均，推动教育普惠等长期困扰人类发展的大问题。\n　　然而，到了2026年下半年，盖茨认为AI有可能会对人类社会构成严重威胁，如何应对由此产生的风险应是“全球头等大事”。他称，其实科技行业也知道这些威胁，他们却在刻意淡化，因为过多风险警示可能会影响融资。\n　　日前，盖茨接受了第一财经记者的专访，他表示现在看来AI既可以成为推动实现平等的强大力量，也可能会加剧当前的全球不平等。\n　　他进一步解释道：“如果AI只在富裕国家得到应用，无法惠及发展中国家，那么不平等只会进一步加剧。例如在撒哈拉以南非洲，医生越短缺的地方，越无法充分利用AI于健康领域。我认为，（对于改变现状），没有任何理由再拖延下去。”\n　　8月26日，盖茨也曾在个人网站发表了一篇6000字的英文文章，表示向AI时代的过渡，将是人类历史上最为动荡的时期之一。眼下，国际社会并没有做好充分准备。不过，如果采取恰当步骤，AI将会成为一股向善的力量，会让每个人都过得更好。他不否定AI的发展，但越来越关注如何让技术惠及更多人。\n　　担忧\n　　9月8日，美国AI公司Anthropic的研究员考克森（Jacob Coxon）在社交平台X上宣布辞职，他在辞职声明中警告称，业内领先的AI公司正在竞相开发“可能在未来十年内毁灭我们所有人”的超级AI技术，此言一出立即引来轩然大波。事实上，越来越多人和考克森有着同样的担忧。\n　　盖茨说，盖茨基金会与微软、谷歌、OpenAI和Anthropic等美国领先的AI公司都保持着非常好的合作关系，特别是微软，“我曾在那里工作了很长时间，至今仍然会给他们提供一些建议”，而OpenAI和Anthropic，盖茨透露他最近就会去旧金山拜访它们，进行一些磋商。\n　　今年1月，OpenAI和盖茨基金会共同发起“地平线1000（Horizon 1000）”倡议。双方共同投入5000万美元资金及技术支持，推动AI与医疗结合，帮助非洲国家利用AI完善卫生保健体系。卢旺达是该倡议的首个试点国家。盖茨表示：“卢旺达有望在一定程度上成为非洲的样板。看到他们如此迅速地行动起来，我感到非常振奋。”\n　　9月15日，盖茨基金会还宣布将在未来两年至少投入10亿美元，推动AI更加广泛、公平地惠及全球人群。同日，发表了题为《创造改变——AI、公平与刻不容缓的抉择》的2026年《目标守卫者报告》（下称“报告”），表示AI是让拥有最多资源的人受益，还是能够惠及那些拥有最少资源的人，目前尚未定型，所以时下的选择相当重要。\n　　盖茨向第一财经记者解释道，这一窗口期可能只有12-18个月，“我们不应该浪费任何时间。以健康领域为例，无论是让AI直接帮助患者，还是帮助医护人员提升服务能力，亦或是改善他们决策的质量以及后续复诊的效果，这些都意味着能够挽救大量生命。”\n　　盖茨认为，要让更多人从AI中受益，就有必要从大语言模型中的“语言”下手。在训练早期大语言模型时，90%以上的数据都来自英语信源。所以对于英语和其他主要语言使用者来说，AI正变得越来越精准和强大，而对于其他人来说，AI却停滞不前。\n　　例如在尼日利亚，对一位说约鲁巴语的人来说，试用完AI可能会觉得AI没什么大不了，因为用现在市面上领先的AI语言识别系统与他对话，识别的错误率高达60%，而同一系统对英语的错误率不到6%。\n　　有时候这些错误可能是致命的。例如，在非洲东南部的内陆国家马拉维，一位产妇跑进诊所，用当地语言齐切瓦语说“羊水破了”，如果医生用现在流行的AI工具翻译，大概率会直译成“把水倒了”，很可能会造成医患之间的沟通误解。\n　　因此，盖茨基金会承诺的10亿美元，部分将用于建设公平普惠AI所需的数字基础设施，包括建设目前AI工具尚未充分覆盖的语言数据集，并根据这些工具服务对象的日常用语进行评估。\n　　对于10亿美元的额度，盖茨基金会首席执行官（CEO）苏斯曼（Mark Suzman）说：“大家每天在新闻里听到，（AI的投资）动辄达到天文数字，相比之下，10亿美元听起来似乎不算多。但实际上，在AI普惠这个领域，这是一项极具分量的投入。我预计，这一投入未来还会进一步增加。”\n　　盖茨眼中的中国AI\n　　盖茨对中国AI产业的发展显然十分关注，聊起中国的一些新发展时如数家珍。他说，相比其他国家，中国对人形机器人的关注度更高，前一阵在周末看了世界人形机器人运动会，“看得非常开心”。\n　　他颇为兴奋地说，比赛中既有一些令人惊叹的成功，也有一些相当“壮观”的失误。不过，仅仅是组织“机器人奥运会”赛事本身，就是颠覆认知的，他认为等到下一届比赛举办时，一定会更有意思，“这个领域的发展速度非常快，届时无论是整体水平还是比赛结果，都会有很大的变化。”\n　　谈到人形机器人，盖茨说，机器人手部技术目前仍是瓶颈问题。“中国研究手部技术的人尤其多，我曾在上海参观过一家公司，他们就在研发机器人手部技术，我也一直密切关注这一领域。”他预测道，“如果再过几年，人形机器人能够达到人类的水平，从事建筑和制造业工作，它们甚至可以一天24小时地工作，从某种意义上而言，这是件好事，因为生产率提高了。”\n　　盖茨谨慎地用了“从某种意义上而言”，他尤其担心由此带来的就业问题。“整个社会都需要思考，我们应该如何作出调整，让目前从事这些工作的人感受到，他们能够得到妥善的照顾和支持，而且这种支持不能仅仅是经济上的。在我看来，这是一个全世界都还没有解决的问题。”他说道。\n　　在前述盖茨发表的6000字长文中，一共提到中国三次，是除美国以外提到次数最多的国家，他在文中就AI国际治理问题提议，“美国和中国之间需要一些合作”，以应对AI带来的挑战。\n　　“我相信大家也都知道，中国的AI模型表现非常出色。”盖茨向记者表示，“根据不同的衡量方式，中国和美国都分别有四家甚至更多个机构的模型能够保持最先进水平。也就是说，得分最高的模型与另外七个领先模型之间的差距其实并不大。事实上，现在这些模型的表现都已经超过了大约四个月前最好的模型。”\n　　盖茨将当前的这种局面称为“超级竞争”，他说这意味着，包括非洲各国政府在内的用户，可以获得很多性能不错、价格较低的选择。\n　　此外，他还进一步提议：“我希望两国都能拿出大约5%的数据中心算力，将其作为一种类似于对外援助的方式，为贫困国家提供支持，用于健康、农业和教育等具有重要人道意义的领域。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}