The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
0650 GMT - Oil prices fall in early European trading on hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East war and as Saudi Arabia began efforts to restart a critical pipeline. Brent crude slips 0.9% to $98.42 a barrel, while WTI futures are down 1.4% to $89.28 a barrel. President Trump on Tuesday told reporters that U.S. and Iranian delegations had "a very good meeting." Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is running tests on its East-West oil pipeline as flows could be restored as soon as this week. "Markets are increasingly pricing gradual de-escalation, although geopolitical developments remain fluid and vulnerable to renewed tensions," analysts at brokerage Kotak Neo say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0500 GMT - Fitch Ratings expects the oil market to return to a substantial surplus in 2027. While it expects oil prices to fall next year, Fitch has raised its 2027 forecast for oil to US$70 a barrel from $65 a barrel to reflect the longer-than-anticipated Middle East conflict and the implications for the geopolitical risk premium. Analysts Brian Coulton and Alex Muscatelli acknowledge a high level of uncertainty around these projections. Assuming a deal between the U.S. and Iran takes shape in 1Q of 2027, supply and demand fundamentals could play a bigger role in determining oil prices. On the upside, geopolitical uncertainties could result in oil prices averaging $85 a barrel next year, while on the downside, a rapid recovery in supply could see prices fall to $55 a barrel, they say in a report. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
0114 GMT - Tenaga Nasional expects the Malaysian government's interim electricity subsidy for consumers for September to December to be a one-off cost, says CIMB Securities analyst Choong Chen Foong in a note. The costs stem from the government's decision to raise the threshold for electricity charges to 800 kWh a month from 600 kWh for the four months. The cost, estimated at up to 150 million ringgit, could be lower depending on fuel prices and currency movements, he says. Tenaga also says the current rules for setting electricity tariffs and its 7.3% allowed return remain unchanged, he adds. CIMB maintains a buy rating on Tenaga and keeps its target price at 15.90 ringgit. Shares are 0.3% lower at 13.06 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0029 GMT - Oil falls in early Asian trade. Japan's Kyodo News Agency reported Iran proposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its blockade, though Iran's Fars News Agency later cited sources denying the report. Markets will closely watch diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran for signs of a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. Saudi Arabian crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu are also expected to restart in the near future as state-controlled Aramco has run tests on its East-West pipeline, which was closed following an attack earlier in September. Front-month Brent crude-oil futures fall 0.75% to $98.51 a barrel, while front-month WTI is 1.0% lower at $89.59 a barrel. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
1942 GMT - Oil futures extend their losing streak to five sessions on optimism about oil flows out of the Middle East with Saudi Arabia set to restore its damaged pipeline while dark transits continue through the Strait of Hormuz. Efforts to bring the U.S. and Iran back to the negotiating table add downward pressure on prices.The restart of the East-West pipeline and increasing shipments through the strait, along with seemingly good news on the diplomatic front "is all helping to bring oil prices down," says Roukaya Ibrahim of BCA Research. WTI for October goes off the board at $94.59 a barrel, down 1.2%, and the most-active November contract falls 2% to $90.52. Brent settles down 1.1% at $99.25. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1833 GMT - The U.S. clean-energy industry lost nearly 37,000 jobs last year, reversing a four-year period of annual workforce expansion that followed a broader economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, according to E2, a nonpartisan group of business leaders, investors and professionals who advocate for clean energy. The industry recorded job losses across 35 U.S. states and all its largest subsectors--energy efficiency, renewable power and clean vehicles, E2 says. Energy storage and grid modernization, alongside biofuels, were the only subsectors that "posted slight increases in new jobs," E2 adds. California alone lost almost 21,000 jobs, while Florida saw the largest job gains by adding roughly 3,800 positions. Clean energy represents the largest workforce in the U.S. overall energy industry, with about 3.5 million workers, compared with 958,000 in the oil-and-gas sector, according to E2. (luis.garcia@wsj.com; @lhvgarcia)
1346 GMT - Bank of America raises its Brent price estimates citing the "exceptionally large supply disruption," that has reduced crude and refined-product availability. "Continued skirmishes into year-end are now our most likely scenario," Francisco Blanch of BofA Global Research says in a note. "Although alternative routes and escorted Hormuz shipments have mitigated some of the shortfall, damaged infrastructure and rising geopolitical tensions make rapid normalization unlikely." BofA expects Brent to average $95 a barrel in 2H26, up from the previous estimate of $83 a barrel, and raises its estimate for 2027 to $80 from $75 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1316 GMT - Reports of a conditional Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has oil falling for a fifth consecutive session, with Brent trading under $100 a barrel. The decline reflects optimism for a return to U.S.-Iran talks, although "we remain stuck in the gray state represented by a formula of neither peace nor war," says Samer Hasn of XS.com in a note. "Unless we see a serious return to negotiations between Iran and the United States involving mutual concessions, escalation prospects may remain extremely high, potentially keeping crude prices elevated for an extended period." Most active WTI is down 2% at $90.50 a barrel and Brent falls 1.4% to $98.95 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1252 GMT - Treasury yields slip as oil prices fall, ahead of a $69 billion auction of two-year notes. President Trump addresses the U.N. this morning amid hopes of a diplomatic solution for the Strait of Hormuz. Crude falls 2% to stay below $100, easing inflation pressures. Markets will be watching the auction results to gauge demand for U.S. government debt as interest rate increases loom. The two-year yield trades at 4.730%, slightly lower than yesterday's settlement of 4.751%. The 10-year declines to 4.935% from 4.962%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1053 GMT - European utilities' earnings will benefit from higher-for-longer natural gas prices on the continent, Bank of America analysts write. Continuing disruption in Qatar, increased demand in Asia and low storage levels in Europe will combine to keep benchmark European natural gas prices at 55 euros a megawatt hour in 2027, the analysts say. Markets are underestimating the impact on utilities' companies EPS by around 6%-9%, the analysts say. European governments could impose lower power price caps, but levels will likely be above prices set in the 2022 energy crisis, the analysts say. SSE and RWE are both likely to deliver strong results in November, they say. A basket of European utilities stocks rise by 0.1%.