General Mills is Fighting Inflation and Soft Demand. Earnings Will Show Its Progress.

Dow Jones
09/23

General Mills is set to report fiscal first-quarter results Wednesday morning. Investors are looking for evidence that a long-running sales slump at the Cheerios maker is finally starting to ease.

For the quarter ended in August, Wall Street expects adjusted earnings of 72 cents a share on revenue of about $4.35 billion, according to FactSet. That would compare with 86 cents a share and revenue of $4.52 billion a year earlier.

General Mills is facing high inflation while its cost-saving initiatives are still ramping up. The company told investors in July that first-quarter sales and profit growth would fall below its full-year ranges, but notes that cost savings are expected to pick up as the year progresses.

The quarter also faces a tough comparison because last year's results included one month of sales from General Mills' U.S. yogurt business, which the company has since sold.

The stock could use some reassurance. Shares jumped nearly 9% after General Mills' better-than-expected fourth-quarter report on July 1, but much of that enthusiasm has evaporated.

The stock climbed to $41.55 in late August before sliding back to roughly $35.45 as of Tuesday's close, leaving it down more than 20% this year.

The central issue to watch on Wednesday will be demand. General Mills spent much of fiscal 2026 lowering prices to win back consumers as budget-conscious shoppers became increasingly value sensitive.

The company is also hoping product innovation could help further rebuild demand. Higher-protein Cheerios, new snack and frozen-food products, and premium pet-food brands such as Tiki Cat are meant to give shoppers reasons to buy beyond discounts.

Those efforts are starting to show results. North America Retail organic sales were flat from a year ago in the fourth quarter, and management said earlier this month that retail sales trends were improving and consumers were responding to new products.

Still, profit margins could remain under pressure. General Mills expects input-cost inflation of 4% to 5% this year, driven partly by higher labor, energy, and food ingredients costs. The company has also flagged tariffs on steel and aluminum, which raise packaging costs.

General Mills has some protection against those pressures, having locked in much of its key input costs through hedging and long-term supplier contracts. It also expects at least $750 million in cost savings for the fiscal year. But those savings are expected to ramp up over the year, leaving the first quarter more exposed to higher costs.

Just two weeks ago, General Mills reaffirmed its full-year guidance for organic sales ranging from down 1.5% to up 0.5% and adjusted earnings of $3 to $3.20 a share. That's down from fiscal 2026's $3.55 a share.

For Wednesday's report, investors will likely focus less on whether earnings land a penny above or below consensus. Instead, they'll watch closely whether consumer demand in the latest quarter was improving enough to keep that full-year outlook intact.

 

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