Bank Indonesia Could Raise Policy Rate to 6.25% by November

Dow Jones
09/24

0311 GMT - Bank Indonesia could raise its policy rate by another 25 bps each at its October and November meetings, bringing the rate to 6.25%, Nomura's economists Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani say in a note. The forecast reflects expectations of continued pressure on Indonesia's external balance and the rupiah, which could leave BI with limited room to delay further tightening, they say. They expect the current-account deficit to widen to 2.1% of GDP in 2026 from 0.1% in 2025, amid higher oil prices and subdued exports. Net foreign direct investment inflows are also expected to slow due to heightened policy uncertainty, increasing reliance on volatile investment portfolio inflows. However, Nomura acknowledges that the rate outlook remains highly uncertain amid rapidly evolving external and domestic conditions.

 

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