Consumer Stocks Tumble on Worries About Meta's Muse. the Selling is Overdone.

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Artificial intelligence tools like Meta's new Muse may make life a lot easier for consumers. But they could also wreak havoc on the business models-and stock prices-of plenty of consumer companies.

Worries about the increased use of AI assistants and agents such as Muse, as well as OpenAI's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude and Alphabet's Gemini, could have a particularly big impact on what analysts at Goldman Sachs call "consumer inertia" stocks.

These are the types of companies where people use a particular product or service more out of habit but could switch to a better or cheaper alternative or just cancel their services outright if there were an easier option to do so.

According to several reports, Goldman said in a note to clients Tuesday that AT&T, T-Mobile, Netflix and insurers Allstate and Progressive could be affected by the rise of personal AI agents. So could travel companies like Booking Holdings and Expedia. (Goldman told Barron's that it could not share the report because it was "for client consumption only.")

But shares of Booking and Expedia were lower Tuesday and tumbled another 5% and 8% respectively Wednesday. The Goldman consumer inertia basket fell 2.6% Tuesday and was down again Wednesday, according to data from Bloomberg. It has lost 10% since Meta unveiled Muse earlier this month.

Planet Fitness, New York Times, Charles Schwab and Intuit are also members of Goldman's "consumer inertia" basket that were hit particularly hard Tuesday.

Is the selloff an overreaction though? Muse and other AI assistants may influence some consumer behavioral patterns. But AI is unlikely to lead to rapid changes that pose immediate threats to many consumer-oriented companies, particularly insurers and other financial services providers.

Analysts at Bank of America argued in a report Wednesday that Progressive could actually benefit from Muse and other AI agents.

"Bears argue that AI-powered shopping tools could create a 'race to the bottom' by exposing insurance pricing to greater competition. We believe the opposite may be true," the BofA analysts wrote.

"Greater transparency should benefit consumers and reward carriers with the best underwriting analytics, the fewest pricing mistakes, and the greatest economies of scale," they added.

Analysts at Truist Securities added that worries about AI agents blowing up the business models for brokerage firms like Charles Schwab may be overdone as well.

"Consumer trust of AI is still not very high for high value financial tasks," the Truist analysts said.

In another sign of how indiscriminate the Muse-related selling was, investors were even punishing some of the companies that announced partnerships with Meta, including Expedia. Shares of Shopify, PayPal and Instacart were also lower Wednesday. Shopify did rally earlier in the week though on the initial news of its Muse integration.

Muse could have an impact on consumer behavior. But what's not as certain just yet is how much of a dent Muse and other AI agents will put into the revenue and earnings streams of consumer stocks. The indiscriminate selling seems like an overreaction.

 

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