Fed's Paulson Joins Chorus of Policymakers Predicting More Rate Increases Ahead

Dow Jones
09/24

Anna Paulson, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, joined the growing number of policymakers warning that the central bank will likely need to implement additional rate increases to rein in inflation.

In remarks at the Philadelphia Fed's Annual Fintech Conference, Pauslon said she supported raising the federal-funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% at last week's meeting. She characterized the higher rate as a "recalibration" designed to push inflation back to the Fed's 2% target.

"Looking ahead, if conditions evolve as I expect, some modest further tightening may be warranted," said Paulson, who is currently a voting member of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. "Returning inflation to 2% is a top priority, and I will support the policy path that gets us there while carefully weighing risks to the labor market along the way."

Paulson's remarks echoed those of New York Fed President John Williams, who said earlier Thursday that raising rates again in 2026 was "reasonable." Gov. Michael Barr similarly said Wednesday that he believed "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed" to ensure that inflation returns to the 2% target in a "timely" fashion.

Although the majority of Fed officials penciled in only one additional rate increase for 2026, markets are betting on more. The odds of two more hikes by the end of the year currently stand at 58%, up from 42% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Paulson, who hadn't written or spoken publicly since Aug. 4, noted that she was questioning whether monetary policy was restrictive enough to deliver 2% inflation even before the summer months. But by the September FOMC meeting, Paulson said it was clear it wasn't. She calculates that underlying inflation is running in a range of about 2.5% to 3%, well above the Fed's target.

That gap, she added, has shown little sign of closing.

"The best I can say about underlying inflation this year is that it hasn't gotten worse," Paulson added.

In Thursday's speech, Paulson blamed the buildout of artificial intelligence capabilities as a factor keeping underlying inflation stubbornly high.

"While the impact of AI on productivity remains unclear, its effect on prices is not," she added. The investment boom, she pointed out, is increasing demand for everything from computer chips to construction materials. In turn, that demand is boosting prices.

Looking more broadly, Paulson says that she sees the U.S. economy as resilient and the labor conditions are "stable" and may have even improved a bit. Underlying inflation, however, remains stubbornly elevated and that is where the risk remains.

 

应版权方要求,你需要登录查看该内容

免责声明:投资有风险,本文并非投资建议,以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请,作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考,不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证,投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。

热议股票

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10