Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
09/24

The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0330 GMT - Petronas upstream investments could support Malaysia's oil and gas activity outlook, says RHB IB analyst Lee Yun Leon in a note. The company's capital investments reached 41.4 billion ringgit in 1H, with downstream spending of 26 billion ringgit accounting for 63%, due to an additional investment in Pengerang Refining and Petrochemical. Upstream capex rose 19% on year to 8.7 billion ringgit in 1H, he says. Geopolitical tensions are expected to provide near-term support for oil prices, petrochemical prices and freight rates, he says, and maintains 2026 and 2027 Brent crude forecasts at $89 and $72 a barrel, respectively. RHB has an overweight rating on Malaysia's oil and gas sector. MISC and Dialog are top picks on MISC's defensive earnings and Dialog's resilient recurring income. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0109 GMT - Oil is lower in early Asian trade. Brent recovered above $100 per barrel as hopes of a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded. However, gains were capped after a surprise build in U.S. crude oil inventories, said ANZ Research analysts in a note. Data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that commercial crude oil stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve rose by 3 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 18. That compared with expectations for a 500,000-barrel drop in a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. Front-month Brent crude-oil futures are down 0.8% at $102.29 a barrel, while front-month WTI is 0.6% lower at $91.64 a barrel. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

1954 GMT - Oil futures settle higher following five sessions of losses, with WTI rising 1.8% to $92.16 a barrel and Brent up 3.9% to $103.08 a barrel. U.S. weekly inventory data were seen bearish for oil as crude stocks rose by 3 million barrels, putting inventories 2% above the five-year average. Product stocks remain tighter, with gasoline inventories 6% below average for the time of year and distillate stocks 12% below average. "Ironically, the only bearish distillate data in today's report was distillate exports down 283,000 barrels a day to a nearly three-month low of 1.331 million barrels a day," Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. The report came as the Trump administration is considering a diesel export ban to lower domestic prices. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1916 GMT - U.S. diesel futures fall as the market weighs news that the Trump administration is considering implementing restrictions on diesel exports. Secretary Chris Wright hinted at a voluntary cap, rather than ban in a WSJ interview. An export ban could create more problems than it solves, says Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group in a note. Exports are an outlet for U.S. Gulf Coast refiners to keep running hard, he says. "Cut that outlet and storage fills up. Then they cut runs...they don't just make less diesel--they make less gasoline and jet fuel too. That's how you turn a diesel problem into a broader fuel problem." The key to solving the diesel issue is a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and an end to broader refining disruptions overseas, he adds. Front-month Nymex diesel settles down 3.4% at $4.7764 a gallon. AAA reports the current average price at $6.5217 a gallon, near a record high. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1902 GMT - PG&E is dealing with a growing risk from inaction on wildfire liability reform, UBS analysts say, downgrading the stock to neutral from buy. While the analysts expect work on wildfire legislation to continue, there hasn't been action. California Governor Gavin Newsom has spoken about a potential special session on AI, but hasn't mentioned something similar for wildfire reform, the analysts say. They see the delay in a wildfire reform resolution as a negative for PG&E's performance. UBS cuts its price target on the stock to $14 from $19, and lowers its estimate for 2028 earnings per share to $1.90 from $1.95. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)

1817 GMT - A potential plan to implement restrictions on diesel exports may have implications for farmers harvesting crops. Energy Secretary Chris Wright hinted at a voluntary cap, rather than ban in a WSJ interview. On one hand, it could make diesel cheaper for farmers in the Midwest and Gulf Coast, says Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull, citing research from the Atlantic Council. "Farmers buying fuel during that period could benefit, although savings would depend on local delivery prices and purchase timing," he says in a note. But on the other hand, it could lead to refineries lowering their throughput with could actually raise prices, says Wiesemeyer. CBOT grain futures are lower, with corn down 1.3%, soybeans off 0.6%, and wheat 1.4% lower. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1640 GMT - Last week's unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil stockpiles as exports fell and refineries cut runs is "slightly bearish" for crude, but keeps upward pressure on gasoline prices, says David Russell of TradeStation. "Energy markets are tight but stabilizing," he says, "but it might be hard for crude to go much lower, given the record crack spreads." The EIA reported a 3 million barrel increase in crude oil stocks, leaving them 2% above the five-year average for the time of year, while gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels and were 6% below the average. WTI crude is up 2.1% at $92.41 a barrel after falling the previous five sessions. Nymex gasoline futures are up 1.4% at $3.5367 a gallon. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1451 GMT - U.S. Treasurys would face a fresh round of selling pressure if renewed hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough in Iran prove to be misplaced, BMO Capital Markets' Ian Lyngen says in a note. President Trump is touting a "very good meeting" between the U.S. and Iran, along with plans for another one in the near future, raising hopes that an end to the conflict could be coming, Lyngen says. But it remains unclear if any progress has been made toward a formal deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he says. If talks break down, a rebound in energy prices would weigh on Treasurys, Lyngen says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1343 GMT - Oil futures are gaining after falling the previous five sessions on optimism about oil flows out of the Middle East and renewed efforts to restart talks between the U.S. and Iran. While discussions have been held through mediators, Iran has shown little interest in direct talks, Ritterbusch & Associates says. The firm notes President Trump's comments that he expects a deal after the midterm elections and his repeated threat to annihilate Iran. "Such statements do little to sway us from a longer-term bullish stance." WTI is up 0.6% at $91.05 a barrel as the November contract debuts at the front of the curve. Brent is up 1.3% at $100.51 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1305 GMT - Treasury yields rise as markets face geopolitical uncertainty and brace for interest rate increases amid a lull in economic indicators. China's Xi Jinping visits the U.S. Brent crude rises 1%, back to $100 a barrel, following President Trump's threat to escalate the war in Iran if Tehran fails to accept a deal. Hawkish Fedspeak supports bets on a sequence of hikes into 2027. The 10-year yield rises to 4.988% from yesterday's settlement of 4.966% and the two-year increases to 4.796% from 4.749%.

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