The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1423 ET - The recovery in Canada's home resale market looks to be losing steam and activity remains low by historical standards, National Bank's Daren King and Evelyne Gosselin say. Sales fell 0.7% on-month in August, snapping a five-month streak of increases. King and Gosselin say a major headwind looms. Canadian and U.S. bond yields have surged since the start of the Iran war, yet mortgage rates haven't fully kept pace which has significantly squeezed lenders' margins. A rise in fixed-rate mortgage rates is therefore highly likely in the coming weeks, the pair argue. And sooner or later rising financing costs will weigh on affordability and undermine an already precarious recovery, unless geopolitical or trade tensions ease, they say. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1238 ET - Investors are itching to know when the pace of large bank M&A will resume in earnest, JPMorgan analysts say in a research note. "While larger deals are not occurring at the same pace as last year, bank M&A is expected to persist as institutions seek greater scale, lower operating costs, and opportunities to enter new markets and acquire deposits in a healthy manner," they write. As it stands, the outlook for higher interest shouldn't derail progress in the deal pipeline, given that most of the industry players already weathered and steeled themselves from challenging macroeconomic conditions. There's likely still a transformation deal (or two) out there, with many investors expecting it to come before the end of the current administration. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

0653 ET - Societe Generale's guidance supports further earnings upgrades, BofA Securities analysts say. The French bank issued "punchy" targets, the analysts write, focused on selective growth and cost reduction. The revenue guidance of 3% per year and cost cuts leave room for future upgrades, BofA says. "We believe the guidance supports additional earnings upgrades and could translate into mid-single digit upside to consensus EPS," the analysts say. The targets suggest 5% consensus EPS upgrades for 2029, BofA says, while the stock is "heavily discounted". Shares are up 2.9%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0500 ET - Liontrust Asset Management is grappling with short-term headwinds that have dragged down profit estimates for the next two years, Berenberg analysts say. Market conditions for the fund management group have remained difficult amid lower equity markets and weaker investor sentiment. Berenberg now expects higher outflows and cuts its pretax profit estimates by 9% and 12% for the next two years, respectively. This takes Berenberg slightly below consensus forecasts from slightly above. There is little impact on the rating as it was already at low levels, the analysts say. Berenberg lowers its price target on the stock to 360 pence from 410 pence. "There is still material upside from the current share price, although we recognize that improving flows remain a key catalyst," the analysts add. Shares are down 5.5% at 268.50 pence. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0445 ET - Banco Santander's earnings growth and resilience are not reflected in its valuation, Citi analysts say. The Spanish bank's earnings are positively geared to higher rates globally, despite an offset from its Brazilian business, Citi notes. Based on the change since February in forward curves, which track expectations of rate movements, Citi estimates a 3% uplift to 2028 net profit. Despite this, Santander's shares have underperformed peers. Future net interest income growth for the bank will be supported by market shares of at least 10% in most regions, which decreases earnings volatility. Citi maintains a buy recommendation on Santander, and says it prefers it to the Spanish domestic banks. Shares are up 1.6%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0433 ET - High U.K. government bond yields or gilt yields could pile pressure on public sector finances ahead of the budget on October 28, Morningstar DBRS' Julia Specht says in a note. The gilt market has faced structural shifts, including reduced demand for long-dated gilts, increased corporate debt supply, and higher sensitivity to fiscal risks, which have led to rising yields, she says. "With the government's fiscal headroom already limited, elevated yields could constrain policy flexibility ahead of key budget decisions." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0354 ET - Societe Generale's improved cost outlook will lead to consensus EPS upgrades, J.P. Morgan's Delphine Lee and Kian Abouhossein write. The French bank forecasts return on tangible equity between 13% and 14% by 2029, based on 3% annual revenue growth and lower costs. The financial targets were largely anticipated by consensus expectations, JPM says. However, a more ambitious revenue outlook for corporate and investment banking, as well as improved cost control, are the main surprises. The analysts note Societe Generale management's strong track record on reducing costs. As a result, JPM expects consensus earnings per share upgrades between 4% and 5%. Shares are up 3.9%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0324 ET - Societe Generale provided a credible path to its higher 2029 profitability target, Jefferies' Joseph Dickerson and Theo Massing say. The French bank forecasts return on tangible equity between 13% and 14% by 2029, compared with the consensus of 12.6%. "The beauty of today's plan is that management clearly have visibility on the cost trajectory and have outlined a series of highly idiosyncratic actions on the cost base," Jefferies says. The 3% revenue growth target is a lowball, Jefferies says, but it is not driven by more corporate and investment banking growth from 2026. The improvement to profitability isn't linked to French bond yield spreads or politics, and is instead based on costs and growth in digital unit BoursoBank, Jefferies adds. Shares are up 4.9%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0234 ET - The dollar rises as it continues to receive support from expectations for further interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve. The Fed voted unanimously to raise rates by 25 bps last week and officials pencilled in at least one more increase by year-end. "Although further U.S. rate hikes had already been largely priced in and longer-term inflation expectations had remained stable near the Fed's inflation target, there apparently remained some doubt as to whether the central bank would actually be willing to raise rates sufficiently quickly and decisively," Commerzbank's Thu Lan Nguyen says in a note. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 100.335 after reaching a seven-week high of 100.564 Friday.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0026 ET - Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda appeared to deliberately mix hawkish and dovish remarks to maximize future policy flexibility at his press conference on Friday, Barclays economists say in a note. Their impression is that the BOJ doesn't appear to have a firm view on its timing for the next potential increase yet. Barclays expects the central bank to deliver additional increases in January and July next year to a terminal rate of 1.75%. After the terms of two hawkish board members expire in July 2027, Barclays believes Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's administration is likely to appoint new dovish members, strengthening the BOJ's overall bias toward maintaining the status quo. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

0012 ET - Australia's unemployment rate likely edged higher to 4.6% from 4.5% in July, Moody's Analytics says in a note. Economic activity is softening, in part due to successive interest rate hikes that have curbed demand. Vacancies are drawing far more competition, and new job ads are trending lower, indicative of softening labour market conditions, it says. The unemployment data are due Thursday. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

2335 ET - The Bank of Japan is likely to raise its policy rate at every other meeting to a terminal rate of 2% by June 2027, Societe Generale's Jin Kenzaki says in a note. At Friday's press conference after the BOJ raised rates to 1.25%, Gov. Kazuo Ueda noted that with the underlying inflation approaching its 2% target, the central bank's next focus is whether it will become entrenched at that level, Kenzaki says. Ueda also stated that next year's spring wage negotiations between management and unions would be a crucial factor in making this assessment, Kenzaki says. Societe Generale anticipates that the solid momentum seen in wage negotiations will continue into next year, he says.