America's manufacturing economy is improving, creating opportunities for industrial investors. Make no mistake, though. The improvement boils down to AI.
Wells Fargo analyst Stephen Tusa launched coverage of seven industrial stocks on Thursday that share a common theme: data center exposure.
And Tusa rates them all Buy.
They are air-conditioning providers Carrier Global, Trane Technologies, and Johnson Controls; Dover, which has air-conditioning and fluid-handling technologies; electrical equipment supplier Eaton; Emerson Electric, an automation technology company; and data center infrastructure provider Vertiv.
Manufacturing is finally picking up after limping along for years. The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers' Index has been tracking north of 50, which indicates growth, for several months now.
"Clearly something else is going on, and that is the [roughly] $600 billion two-year inflection in data center-related capex, and the knock-on impacts to project activity across the energy/power and semiconductor chains," the analyst wrote.
"Unlike re-shoring, the numbers are the narrative, as sales growth is the best we have seen in our 28 years covering the sector," said Tusa, who is well-known from his JP Morgan days, when he made a bearish call on General Electric stock in the Jeff Immelt era.
As for his new Buy recommendations, four are tied to the work of cooling AI computers: Carrier, Trane, Johnson Controls, and parts of Dover's business. His price target for Carrier is $67, up 22% from recent levels. Trane's is $536, up 23%. Johnson Controls comes in at $186, up 27%. Dover's is $229, up $21%.
Eaton's electrical business, too, is boosted by power-hungry AI computers. And its Boyd acquisition this year came with chip-cooling technologies for now and in the future. Tusa's price target is $503, up 15%.
Emerson might be the least exposure to data centers. But its acquisitions of AspenTech and National Instruments have morphed it into a leading automation and software provider. Tusa's price target is $177, up 14%.
Vertiv designs, builds, and services AI data centers. It is in what Tusa calls "unprecedented growth." "There has never been a growth cycle like this one in the history of the sector."
Vertiv's price target for Vertiv stock is $340, up 37%-the most upside implied. Shares were up 2.5% at $251.59; the S&P 500 was essentially flat and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.3%.
Vertiv is popular on Wall Street, with 85% of analysts covering the company rating its shares Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for S&P 500 stocks typically ranges from 55% to 60%.
Most of Tusa's stocks are popular, with above-average Buy-rating ratios. The exception is Johnson Controls, with still a respectable 54% Buy-rating ratio.
Here are seven data-center-dependent ideas for investors. AI growth is needed to keep the stocks working, but Tusa sees AI demand exceeding AI supply well into 2027.