Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
09/28

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1005 GMT - Palm oil ended lower in Asia. Malaysia's palm oil exports during the Sept. 1-25 period are estimated to be down 24% on month. Prices were likely weighed by Malaysia's sluggish export data and expectations of higher tropical oil output, Kenanga Futures analysts said in a note. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery closed 9 ringgit lower at 4,663 ringgit a ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0831 GMT - Credit valuations and equity prices could face pressure under an environment of higher interest rates, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Middle East tensions and the accelerating oil prices are causing markets to expect three or more interest-rate increases by each of the major central banks over the coming year, LSEG data show. "If energy prices remain elevated, central banks have less room to ease and more reason to keep inflation risks front and centre." Brent crude climbs 2.7% to $107.14 a barrel. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0814 GMT - The jump in oil prices is turning into a policy rate problem, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a research note. Higher oil prices, sticky inflation expectations, resilient activity and heavy sovereign financing needs are pushing global discount rates higher, Munnelly says. If energy prices remain elevated, central banks will have less room to ease and more reason to keep inflation risks front and center, he says. The average yield on a global bond gauge has now climbed above 4% for the first time since 2007, underlining the scale of the global rates reset, he notes. "This is no longer just a U.S. story," he writes. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0803 GMT - TotalEnergies' new longer-term strategy shows consistency and durability, while also allowing for higher returns in the short term, analysts at Jefferies say in a note. The French energy company's updated outlook was an overall positive, with maintained energy growth until 2030 and an increasing portion of energy mix being electricity in the future, the analysts say. At the same time, there was an increase in shareholder distribution, they add. Shares are up 0.78% at 80.6 euros. (aimee.look@wsj.com)

0748 GMT - European gas prices rise more than 2% after President Trump rejected Iran's truce proposal, fueling concerns over prolonged disruptions to LNG flows ahead of winter. In early trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 2.4% to 73.63 euros a megawatt-hour. "Lower Norwegian pipeline flows due to maintenance and subdued LNG traffic through Hormuz continue to tighten the market," analysts at ANZ say. "Meanwhile, a rebound in Chinese LNG imports highlights the risk of stronger Asian competition for cargo, leaving European gas prices vulnerable to winter demand and further supply shocks." EU storage levels are currently 70% full. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0732 GMT - Oil prices climb more than 2% after President Trump rejected Iran's truce proposal, keeping the geopolitical risk premium elevated. In early European trading, the front-month Brent crude contract, which expires on Tuesday, is up 2.8% at $107.15 a barrel, while the second-month contract trades at $99.15 a barrel. The U.S. oil gauge WTI rises 2% to $94.21 a barrel. "Rejection of a settlement supports prices because disruption risk remains unresolved, while evidence that significant volumes are still moving prevents the market from pricing a complete supply shutdown," says Naeem Aslam from Zaye Capital Markets. The diplomatic path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming discussions over Iran's nuclear program remains highly uncertain. Meanwhile, tightening physical-market conditions are intensifying inflation risks and reviving debate over potential export curbs. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0723 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, edge higher and remain at elevated levels after President Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal on Friday, reviving Middle East tensions. The absence of a breakthrough in the U.S.-Iran conflict is driving up oil prices and adding to inflation concerns. Front-month Brent crude rises 2.3% to $106.7 a barrel. Ten-year gilt yields rise 0.9 basis points to 5.399%, Tradeweb data show, having climbed to a one-week high of 5.414% on Friday. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0710 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields open slightly lower but they potentially face a challenging week as oil prices remain elevated and issuance will be heavy. High oil prices increase prospects of further interest-rate rises, while supply is due from Belgium on Monday, Netherlands and Italy on Tuesday, Germany on Wednesday and Spain and France on Thursday. "The bond markets remain in a precarious state," Commerzbank rates strategist Rainer Guntermann says in a note. "Rebounding oil prices, [European Central Bank President Christine] Lagarde's testimony today, and this week's data and supply could exacerbate the current nervousness," he says. The 10-year German Bund declines 0.2 basis points to 3.619%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0704 GMT - Investors raise their bets on the Bank of England increasing interest rates in November as oil prices advance. The absence of a breakthrough in the U.S.-Iran conflict is causing oil prices to climb, raising concerns about high inflation. Brent crude rises 2.3% to $106.7 a barrel. Markets price in an 81% chance of a BOE rate rise at the next policy meeting in November, up from a 62% probability a week ago, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0653 GMT - Bitcoin falls as renewed geopolitical concerns and expectations for further U.S. interest-rate rises dampen appetite for risky assets. U.S. officials said President Trump rejected a proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms, The Wall Street Journal reports. For bitcoin, the Middle East conflict, higher oil prices and inflation concerns push yields higher and pressure speculative and long-duration assets, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. Recent strong U.S. data support the case for further rate rises, also weighing on bitcoin, he says. Bitcoin falls 1.7% to $83,108, having earlier hit a one-week low of $82,773, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0640 GMT - The dollar rises as hopes for U.S.-Iran diplomacy fade, lifting oil prices and driving investors towards safe-haven assets. U.S. officials said President Trump rejected a proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms, WSJ reports. Higher oil prices support the dollar as the U.S. is a net oil exporter. The dollar is also lifted by expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates further. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday will prove key for these expectations. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 101.181. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0522 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise on the day pressured by higher oil prices, trading close to but below recent multiyear highs, as U.S.-Iran peace talks stall. Peace negotiators are pressing Iran to make a concession on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the U.S. after President Trump rejected Iran's truce proposal. The two-year Treasury yield rises 4.4 basis points to 4.907%, the 10-year Treasury yield rises 2.8 basis points to 5.208%, while the 30-year Treasury yield is up 1.7 basis points at 5.518%, according to Tradeweb.

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