1056 GMT - Climbing energy prices means the Bank of England is now on course to tighten policy, Morgan Stanley's Bruna Skarica and Fabio Bassanin say in a note. They change their BOE call to two quarterly interest-rate hikes in November and February. "While we still think--and with a decent degree of conviction--that any signs of an improvement in the supply in oil and refined products would leave the BOE on hold from here, it is challenging to maintain a prolonged hold as a modal call amid the recent Middle East newsflow," they say. The only catalyst for even stronger tightening would be a materially fiscally loose and inflationary budget announced next month, they say.