Global Equities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
09/25

The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0824 ET - Shares in German chemical company Evonik rise nearly 10% following a media report suggesting a potential takeover approach by rival BASF. According to the Financial Times, BASF has made a merger proposal to Evonik and its largest shareholder, the RAG-Stiftung foundation. BASF has been in talks with banks about a possible takeover since earlier this year and continues to work on a potential deal, it says citing unnamed sources. BASF and Evonik declined to comment. Evonik shares are up 8.8% while BASF shares are down 2%. (najat.kantouar@wsj.com)

0821 ET - Norway's Equinor is expected to grow its 2026 buyback to $4 billion on materially higher gas prices, HSBC's Kim Fustier writes in a note. The company set out a $3 billion target at its June CMD but since then gas prices have stayed high, she says. Equinor's balance sheet is set to continue improving and the company should be able to comfortably pay out $4 billion again over 2027, she says. Buybacks are then seen sustained at $3 billion as gearing stabilizes at low-double digits by the end of 2028, she notes. Shares fall 3.1% to 403.40 Norwegian kroner. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0816 ET - French energy major TotalEnergies should return to its $2 billion-a-quarter share buyback, HSBC's Kim Fustier writes in a note. Management had cut it to between $750 million and $1.5 billion assuming oil prices between $60 to $70 a barrel, she notes. Prices have since risen. HSBC now sees Brent crude likely averaging $80 a barrel in 2026 and potentially exceeding $70 in 2027. At this level, TotalEnergies management is expected to revert to its previous policy of returning at least 40% of cash flow from operations, she says. Shares fall 1.8% to 79.60 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0803 ET - Repsol's 2026 share buyback is seen at 1.7 billion euros, up from a prior forecast of 1.4 billion euros, HSBC's Kim Fustier writes in a note. HSBC also increases its 2027 buyback forecast to 2 billion euros from 1.6 billion euros previously. This is because the Spanish energy major has downstream strength and production ramp-ups that will fuel cash generation, she says. Shares fall 2.7% to 30.70 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0751 ET - Sandoz Group's third-quarter sales might come in slightly below consensus expectations, but the Swiss maker of generic drugs is likely to reiterate its full-year guidance nevertheless, analysts at J.P. Morgan say in a research note. Third-quarter sales are expected to be just shy of the $3 billion mark, or below consensus estimates, due to known headwinds, according to JPM. Sales growth excluding currency changes is expected to slow down to 5.8% in the third quarter from 7% in the second, as pricing pressures continue to weigh on its generics segment, the analysts say. Sandoz's biosimilar segment is also expected to post a sales deceleration, given that its year-earlier results already captured the launch of its Wyost and Jubbonti products in the U.S., they add. Shares fall 0.1%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0747 ET - Italian oil major Eni will likely increase its quarterly share buyback again as it benefits from higher commodity prices, HSBC's Kim Fustier writes in a note. The upgrade is expected alongside its third-quarter or fourth-quarter results, and would follow an increase to 3.4 billion euros in the second quarter. HSBC now assumes an increase to 3.7 billion euros but it could be even larger, potentially hitting 4 billion euros, Fustier says. For 2027, Eni is expected to buy back 4.3 billion euros of shares from a prior forecast of 2.5 billion euros, she says. Shares fall 1.5% to 24.01 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0742 ET - Publicis Groupe is expected to deliver few surprises in its third-quarter update next month, and its steady performance continues to challenge fears that AI could disrupt its business model, Bank of America analysts say in a research note. The French advertising group is expected to report organic net revenue growth of 4.8% for the third quarter, with trends largely similar to those seen in the prior quarter, the analysts say. Weakness at its Sapient consulting arm is likely to continue, but this should be offset by strong trends in its core marketing practice due to secular demand and new contracts, they add. Bank of America raises its price objective on Publicis to 118 euros from 113 euros. Shares fall 0.3% to 97.38 euros. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0738 ET - Publicis Groupe's steady performance and major account wins mean its 2027 outlook is increasingly clear, Bank of America analysts say in a research note. This makes the French advertising group stand out at a time when many companies are either grappling with economic uncertainty or AI-induced transformations of their business models, the analysts say. "Our new business tracker suggests Publicis has, once again, topped the rankings, while [the second half] is already off to an excellent start," the analysts say. Publicis landed big accounts such as Microsoft, PepsiCo and LVMH without pitches thanks to market consolidation and an offering strengthened by recent acquisitions, and these look like durable features, they add. Bank of America raises its price objective on Publicis to 118 euros from 113 euros. Shares fall 0.3% to 97.36 euros. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0733 ET - Cruise stocks have come under pressure, weighed upon by higher fuel costs, rising interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty. Viking distinguishes itself from other major cruise lines, though, marketing its smaller ships, included excursions and emphasis on time ashore to an older, more affluent customer base, StoneX analyst Mike Hickey says in a note. The company's direct marketing capability gives it a way to reach prospective guests and stimulate bookings before relying on broad fare discounts. Looking ahead to next year, Hickey says Viking's current booked-rate strength should help support continued growth, even as the company faces headwinds. StoneX initiates coverage of Viking with a buy rating and a $99 price target. Viking is up 1% to $80.32 premarket. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

0732 ET - British energy major Shell should return to its $3.5 billion quarterly buyback from the fourth quarter onwards, HSBC's Kim Fustier writes in a note. Shell cut its quarterly run rate to $3 billion in the first quarter of the year. If Shell returns to its previous buyback rate, it would imply a 38% to 39% cash flow from operations payout ratio in 2026 and 2027, she says. This is just below the lower end of Shell's 40% to 50% through-the-cycle target, she notes. This potentially means there could be upside to the $3.5 billion figure, at least temporarily, she says. "But Shell management may prefer to remain on the conservative side," she adds. Shares fall 1.2% to 3,597 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0727 ET - Societe Generale's capital markets day was both ambitious and credible, Deutsche Bank's Sharath Kumar says, despite a tricky macroeconomic backdrop in France. The French bank introduced 2029 targets, including for a return on tangible equity between 13% and 14%. These targets rely mostly on initiatives within Societe Generale's control, Kumar notes. The return on tangible equity target of over 15% for 2030 and beyond is more important, the analyst adds, as it could narrow the profitability gap with leading European banks. Deutsche Bank raises its earnings per share forecasts by 2% to 4% and increases its target price to 89 euros from 86 euros. Deutsche Bank maintains a buy recommendation. Shares are up 4.1% at 72.73 euros.(michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0656 ET - Aritzia remains a "natural compounder" set to deliver sector-leading operational metrics ahead of its second-quarter earnings report on Oct. 8, says Irene Nattel. In a report, she says the strong momentum of the first quarter appears to be continuing into the second, thanks to new store openings, mobile app adoption, and strong customer response to its new fall/winter lineup. Nattel forecasts second-quarter EPS of C$1.06, toward the high end of guidance ranges, and revenue of C$1.12 billion. Although broader retail sector valuation compression prompts the analyst to trim Aritzia's price target from C$202 to C$191, she keeps an outperform rating on the stock. Aritzia's upcoming October Investor Day remains a key potential positive catalyst, she adds.

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