Canada GDP Indicates Recovery After Stalling in July

Dow Jones
09/29
 
 

OTTAWA--Canada's economy looks to have perked up again after stalling at the start of the summer, setting it up for cooler growth this quarter before a fresh squeeze from a ramp up in tariffs.

Gross domestic product was unchanged from the month before in July, snapping three straight months of expansion that included upwardly revised growth of 0.4% in June, Statistics Canada said Tuesday. Advance industry accounts indicate growth resumed in August, with activity rising 0.2%.

July data show flat activity overall for the country's goods-producing industries despite a continued pick up in construction, as well as no growth broadly for services industries as retail and wholesale trade weighed. The data agency's early look at last month points to a recovery in mining and retail that was partially offset by further declines in oil and gas extraction.

Economists calculate the result has the economy tracking annualized growth somewhere ahead of the 1.5% pace projected by the Bank of Canada. That would mark a sharp deceleration from the strong rebound in the second quarter, yet is still viewed by analysts as solid before the fresh uncertainty businesses and households face after an escalation in trade tensions between Canada and the U.S.

The data leaves the central bank still balancing potential downside risk for economic growth and a tightening in financial conditions with higher bond yields against resilient backward looking economic data and the threat elevated energy costs will spread into inflation broadly, Royal Bank of Canada economist Abbey Xu said.

New U.S. tariffs on the equivalent of about 5% of Canadian exported goods aren't expected to have a large direct effect but will hit targeted industries disproportionately. Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem has warned the breakdown in trade negotiations between Ottawa and Washington could again cause business to delay investment and hiring decisions and retrain growth.

Economists were expecting little to no growth for the economy in July, in line with Statistics Canada's earlier flash estimate.

Industry accounts showed that construction activity increased for a fourth consecutive month, offsetting a pullback into the start of 2026. There also was a rebound by utilities in July that countered a contraction the month before, led by growth in electric power generation, transmission and distribution.

Still, manufacturing activity retreated for the first time in four months, in part thanks to unplanned downtime at a petroleum refinery in southwestern Ontario that resulted in lower fuel output. And there were falls in oil and gas extraction, excluding at oil sands mines in Western Canada which tempered the fall, and in mining.

Retail trade decreased in July, largely offsetting an expansion the month before, partly as activity at gasoline stations declined sharply at a time of rapidly rising gas prices during the peak summer travel season. Wholesale trade also weakened after being one of the biggest contributors to Canada's growth in June, though there was growth in services including real estate and accommodation and food.

"The Canadian economy continues to hang in there despite the ongoing trade headwinds," said Benjamin Reitzes, managing director for Canadian rates and macroeconomic strategy, at Bank of Montreal Capital Markets. "However, the new round of tariffs creates some questions for the outlook."

Reitzes said the GDP report is unlikely to heavily shift the balance of risks for the Bank of Canada's next policy meeting in late October, when officials are likely to focus on inflation, energy prices and the central bank's upcoming business outlook survey for guidance.

 
 

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