U.S. Treasury Selloff Resumes After Brief Respite

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Treasury yields hovered near multidecade highs Friday as investors looked past slower-than-expected job creation in the U.S. amid lingering concerns about the long-term economic outlook.

The Labor Department said a net 29,000 jobs were created in September, well below the 84,000 expected in a Wall Street Journal consensus. Past figures were revised downward by a total of 60,000 over August and July. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% from 4.1%.

The 10-year yield slipped on the morning data to an intraday low of 5.155%, before snapping back to 5.285%, close to 2007 highs reached earlier this week.

While Friday's labor numbers alleviated pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates for a second consecutive meeting when it convenes late this month, they didn't squelch all fears. Oil prices walked back early losses and Brent turned slightly higher, keeping inflation concerns alive.

The rise in yields is also driven by concerns about fast-rising borrowing by large AI corporations and ballooning government debt.

"Practically, this is a fiscal responsibility story," F/m Investments CEO Alex Morris said. "We have exactly zero politicians running on fiscal responsibility [and] I think that is going to be the bigger problem."

Increasing government borrowing in Europe is helping push global yields up, Morris said.

"I don't think it's as pronounced as folks are saying, but I do think there's some crowding out effect that's injuring Treasury rates," he said.

The 10-year French benchmark yield reached a 24-year high while the comparable German government-bond yields dropped sharply, before recovering some ground, LSEG data showed.

The spread between French and German 10-year sovereign bond yields jumped to its most since November 2011, reaching 158.67 basis points, up from around 84 points in September. The widening gap comes amid concerns about the French government's ability to implement budget cuts, while German debt is perceived as a safe haven.

 

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