Dallas Fed's Logan Says Interest Rates Need to be Half Percent Higher

Dow Jones
2小时前

The hawks are alive and well at the Federal Reserve. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan onThursday night called for increasing the fed funds rate by another half a percentage point.

The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds target range by a quarter of a percentage point, or 25 basis points, to 3.75% to 4% at the September policy meeting. Logan supported that move, but says it isn't enough.

"The FOMC took an important first step at our September meeting by raising the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points. Still, I currently estimate the target range needs to rise an additional 50 basis points or more to appropriately balance the outlook and risks for our dual mandate goals," Logan, currently a voting member of the FOMC, said.

Logan stressed that delivering on the Fed's dual mandate of both maximum employment and stable prices isn't in conflict. "In combination, a balanced labor market and inflation trending above target mean the stance of policy has been offsides. In my view, the FOMC should set interest rates so we are on track to achieve both of our dual mandate goals, not just one," she said.

But getting both in balance will require tighter monetary policy, Logan added. The strong economic growth-gross domestic product growth was revised up to 2.2% for the second quarter on Wednesday-and resilient consumer spending are signs monetary policy isn't restrictive, Logan said.

"Without any policy restriction, inflation will likely continue its above-target trend. Policy therefore needs to become restrictive," Logan said. A few "additional increases" in the target range would, at minimum, help undo the FOMC's risk management cuts from last fall.

Yet the "end goal" should be to make policy modestly restrictive and put the economy on a path to sustaining both maximum employment and stable prices, Logan said.

Logan also pointed out that markets currently expect higher interest rates, noting that long-term yields have risen significantly in recent weeks.

"Market contacts tell me the run-up began with expectations for strong nominal growth and a higher neutral rate of interest. However, some model-based decompositions also indicate a role for higher term premiums, in addition to higher risk-free rates," Logan said.

Higher term premiums can slow the economy and reduce the need to tighten monetary policy. But that's not to say the Fed can sit back and take its foot off the gas, according to Logan.

"Shifts in market risk-free rates reveal what market participants think the Fed will need to do; they don't do our work for us," she said.

Gauging whether monetary policy is restrictive is challenging, Logan acknowledged, noting that it changes over time and depends on the broader financial environment.

That said, Logan said she would continue to monitor conditions to evaluate for signs of whether policy is becoming restrictive.

 

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